02/11/2020 - 11:52
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
This Friday, at a press conference, the Minister of Labor and Social Security, Claudio Moroni, and the head of the ANSeS, Alejandro Vanoli will report the increase that will govern in March, April and May to retirees, pensioners, beneficiaries of the AUH and Assignments Family, non-contributory benefits and elderly pensions (PUAM). It includes 18 million people.
The increase that will be fixed by presidential decree, replacing the suspended mobility formula that had established 11.56% for all beneficiaries, on average will be between 9 and 10% of the global mass of benefits that will be distributed in differentiated form according to ranges of assets. The Government's commitment is that first quarter inflation is between those two percentages.
Clarín learned that AUH beneficiaries (2.2 million parents of just over 4 million children) will receive an increase of more than 11.56%. Currently the Assignment is $ 2,746 per child.
Retirees and pensioners will receive a percentage and a fixed sum which will determine that those who receive less receive proportionally more than those who earn less. It is estimated that the increases could be around 11/12% for the lowest segment, down to just over 4% for those who charge the most.
Thus, the minimum credit, today of $ 14,068, could be around $ 15,750. From that value, pensions and pensions will receive a percentage lower increase and accentuate the loss of 19.5% that, end to end, they had with the formula suspended between September 2017 and December 2019.
The pension pyramid indicates that there are 3 million retirees and pensioners who charge the minimum credit, plus another 1.5 million non-contributory pensions and PUAMs that receive 70/80% of the minimum credit. Above the minimum, there are 2.8 million retirees and pensioners.
Initially, the proposal most linked to ANSeS, also with differentiated increases, was to respect 11.56% of the total mass of assets. But from Economy they insisted that the objective of the suspension of the mobility formula was to generate a “fiscal saving” and that therefore the global increase should be lower than that percentage. In Economy they count as part of the $ 45,000 million of the pension expense for the 2 bonds of up to 5,000 that those who earned up to $ 19,068 and the 2,000 pesos were charged to the beneficiaries of the AUH.
In the event that the global increase was 9%, the social and pension tax adjustment with respect to the suspended formula would be $ 5,000 million per month or about $ 55,000 million in 2020, only for the retirement and pension segment. If then in June the quarterly increase by decree was repeated below the increase in the suspended formula (11/12%), in 2020 the “pension tax adjustment” could exceed $ 100,000 million.
With the 10% global increase, the fiscal adjustment would be around $ 3,500 million or almost $ 40,000 million, to which the June adjustment should be added.
In any case, the main concern in the Government goes through the legal claims that will be presented to retirees and pensioners who receive much less than 11.56% of the suspended formula. The rationale is that 11.56% is an acquired right because it corresponds to the period July-September 2019 (the suspended formula was applied 6 months late) and the laws cannot be applied retroactively.
However, the officials are confident that the judges will take into account the declaration of Emergency and that the smallest increase with respect to the suspended formula is applied only on 2 occasions (March and June). However, as Clarín said last Saturday, a first pronouncement by a federal judge in Salta warned that the increases by decree cannot affect “the principle of progressivity or prohibition of regressivity of economic and social rights” or decrease “the degree of protection already achieved ”by the beneficiaries of the pension system.
NE
