INSEE will publish on Thursday its first estimate of the contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter, which should reach an unprecedented extent in decades, with an economy devastated by the coronavirus and measures to contain the epidemic.
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Considering the context far too uncertain, the National Institute of Statistics has not published to date any forecast on the level of this contraction. But, thanks to its monthly surveys of households and businesses, INSEE estimated that each month of confinement could lead to a loss of 12 points of GDP over a quarter.
If the first quarter only totals two weeks of confinement, which began on March 17, the fall will be no less massive. The Banque de France has already assessed the contraction of GDP at around 6% over the first three months of the year, making France one of the first major world economies to enter into recession, after the decline in GDP already recorded at the end of 2019 .
This is the worst quarterly performance of the French economy since 1945. According to estimates by INSEE, but also by the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE), the French economy was running at the start of confinement at around two thirds of what it would have reached without an epidemic, with consumption also declining by a third.
The economy is like " an organism placed under anesthesia " and which " does more than assure its vital functions ", indicated last week the Institute in its last point of conjuncture. " Half of the employees were at the end of March in a company whose activity stopped or fell by more than half, " he said again.
Slow recovery
The commercial sector (excluding rents), which includes businesses including all those deemed non-essential have been closed since the start of containment, is halved. However, certain sectors are much more affected, such as the hotel and catering industry or the events industry. At the end of March, construction was also almost at a standstill, while the industry held up a little better.
The government then launched a support plan of 45 billion euros for the economy, in particular via a massive short-time working scheme, which today concerns 10.8 million employees, or more than one employee in the sector. private in two. Since then, he has raised his plan to 110 billion euros, part of which is not pure and simple expenditure, but deferral of social and tax charges.
Beyond the level of the contraction of GDP in the first quarter, the concern persists for the rest of the year, with only a gradual lifting of containment from May 11. According to INSEE, the recovery " will take time " and the loss it estimated at 6 points of GDP over the year for two months of confinement could in reality be " higher because very probably that the exit from confinement will not 'will not lead to an immediate return to normal ,' according to Julien Pouget, the head of the economic department of the Institute.
The government has also lowered its forecasts for the French economy this year, in a new rectified budget adopted last week in Parliament. He expects a recession of 8% of GDP. But it could be even worse, warned the Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire.