The government is preparing to send two bills to the social partners very soon. According to Les Echos, these texts provide for a massive defeasance of social debt and the allocation of a fraction of CSG to the loss of autonomy each year from 2024.
The boards of directors of social security funds (Acoss, Cnaf, Cnam, Cnav) should also be referred to "urgently", probably on May 25, to study the government's proposals.
According to the economic daily, because of the new coronavirus and its budgetary consequences, the government intends to transfer the liabilities of the Central Agency of the social security organizations (Acoss) to the Fund of amortization of the social debt (Cades), the 31 billion accumulated at the end of 2019, to which would be added "at least 92 billion for 2020, 2021, 2022" as well as the 10 billion of hospital debt whose recovery had been announced in November.
Pulverized records
The government had mentioned this transfer of debt at the end of March, noting the drift of the social accounts, torn between new expenses (masks, hospitals, work stoppages) and evaporated revenues (deferrals of contributions, drop in activity).
Already, the borrowing ceiling of Acoss, which allows to pay the care, the allowances, the pensions and which manages the treasury of the Safely, was raised to arrive at 95 billion euros.
All in all, the social security deficit should break all records this year. At the end of April, Gérald Darmanin, the Minister of Public Accounts was already counting on a hole of 41 billion euros.
"This transfer of debt to Cades from social deficits linked to the health crisis is a good solution, but it must be accompanied by a solid plan for dependency", explains Laurent Saint-Martin, the LREM rapporteur for the budget to the Assembly in Les Echos.
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Except that, in principle, the Social Debt Amortization Fund (Cades) was to settle the existing social debt and bow out in 2024. For its part, its lifespan would be extended by nine years until December 31, 2033.
A plan to finance addiction
There remains the question of financing dependency? The government could, still according to Les Echos, punctuate a fraction of the CSG currently devolved to Cades from 2024. The Caisse, which now collects 0.6 point of CSG per year to amortize the debt, would leave 0.15 point to the CNSA, for dependence. Just over 2 billion on this date.
However, we will still be far from the mark. The needs to finance the elderly sector are estimated at 6 to 7 billion euros in four years and 10 billion euros in 2030. A new social negotiation should open to find new resources.
The question will arise as to whether it would not be relevant to merge social debt with public debt to free up more resources. "There is a logic in pooling Covid debt, as the Franco-German couple shows us on the international scene", argues Jocelyne Cabanal of the CFDT.