Laura Garcia
06/01/2020 - 11:02
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
It is that time of the month when the one who still can buys his portion of dollars. The meager but equally attractive official quota of US $ 200 . As early as April, still in quarantine but with a breach, the sales of the solidarity dollar (loaded with a 30% tax) had multiplied by five in homebanking. The number of buyers almost tripled.
But a wave of restrictions swept through May and changed the rules of the game not only for big players but also for the small saver looking to dollarize.
The Central Bank measures basically aimed at two objectives. On the one hand, that whoever buys official does not buy alternative. That is, whoever wants to pay $ 91 that does not feed the stock market circuit to obtain foreign currency at $ 108 (dollar exchange) and $ 115 (counted with settlement, which also allows money to be transferred abroad). And on the other, try to "sweeten" the savings in pesos a little with better returns on deposits.
First problem: even with the blue something deflated, the "mash" continues to tempt (buy solidarity and sell blue, as they say in the jargon).
With the informal dollar at $ 138, whoever bought the $ 200 a month for $ 17,700 could earn $ 10,000 or 56% (assuming they got a retailer at $ 68 plus the surcharge).
Today, with blue trading at $ 125, and assuming a somewhat more expensive retailer ($ 70), the profit is $ 6,800, or 37% on an investment of $ 18,200. It is almost the effective annual rate that the BCRA guarantees for today as a floor for a fixed term.
Of course, there are those who only buy for hoarding (mattresses, savings banks, safes) but these are hard times when those who have some liquidity seek to maximize it.
Now, for those who pureed or also bought dollars in the Stock Market through the sale and purchase of bonds (which already implies having a client account and contemplating commissions but with the advantage of not being subject to any quota), things were they got a lot more complicated.
Alternative dollars, locked
They were two measures that really locked the market and at least for now, while it rearms, they reduced it to a third of what it was in business.
First, in early May, the Central Bank arranged that whoever wants to buy US $ 200 at a solidarity price may not have carried out operations with the dollar exchange or counted on liqui in the previous 30 days and must commit not to do so in the 30 days afterward. That commitment is reflected in an affidavit, which in the online purchase process is reduced to a click. Last week, this closed period was extended to 90 days. That is, six months in total.
But there is a disincentive that can really scare off a retailer. On May 25, the "parking lot" was established to purchase alternative dollars (it already existed for sale). Anyone who wants to dollarize through bonds in the market must leave those securities "parked" for five business days before being able to sell them against dollars to make currency.
The restriction adds a level of risk to the operation that it previously lacked, since the purchase and sale of the title was done instantly. That compass of waiting that is imposed, with the volatility to which Argentine bonds are exposed today, implies in practice that one does not know what the exit price will be , that is, the price that will be paid after those five days.
What they explain in the City is that a possible solution is that the investor has a small position of "parked bonds", with an age of more than five days, to be able to operate. But for the "ant dollarization" savers it doesn't seem very viable and it almost invites you to enter the world of blue.
In fact, many of those who buy their pre-allocated dollar "share" by homebanking have never looked into these markets. But the restrictions that were piling up lately are likely to encourage rather than neutralize your appetite for the ticket.
With these measures, and others that put pressure on exporters and importers, prices fell, but they did not collapse either. In May, the stock market dollar fell 4.1% and the liqui fell 1.1%. In the year they climb around 50% in both cases. The gap between the wholesale dollar and the liqui settled at a level of 65%, after having touched a maximum of 85%, which exceeded the mark of the previous stocks.
"Sweeten" the savings in pesos
Of course, the official intention is another: that saving in pesos discourages going to the dollar. The decision was made on April 17: establish a floor for the rate banks pay on deposits. It happened at a time when excess liquidity in the market had sunk rates in general, including fixed-term rates, which reached 18%.
The Central Bank had released too many pesos (Leliq disarmament) for entities to finance subsidized loans in the context of the pandemic, but the immediate effect was not what was intended and forced it to intervene.
The minimum guaranteed rate was advanced one locker at a time. It was first announced for retailers with fixed terms of up to $ 1,000,000. It was stipulated that it would be equivalent to 70% of the monetary policy rate that the BCRA pays banks for investing in liquidity bills (Leliq) (38%), that is, 26.6% .
A few days later, on April 30, the maximum amount of the fixed terms that were reached by this insured rate was raised from $ 1,000,000 to $ 4,000,000 .
On May 17, the measure was extended to companies , precisely the week that blue touched $ 140 and the gap exceeded 100%. And on May 29, it decided to raise it to the equivalent of 79% of the monetary policy rate, that is, a minimum nominal rate of 30% and an effective annual rate of 35%.
The Argentine rarely makes a fixed term beyond 30 days, so when measuring returns against inflation, it should be done on a monthly basis. From the 30% annual rate, a monthly return of 2.5% arises . This means that the price variation must be less than 2.5% for the purchase value of the savings to be preserved.
In April, with many prices frozen, inflation was just 1.5%, after March 3.3%. For now, it is "stomped" by the effects of the quarantine but economists expect an acceleration in the second half of the year.
According to the latest survey of expectations of the Central Bank among consultants, the Consumer Price Index at the general level would rise 44.4% this year and 49% the next 12 months. Starting in July, they expect monthly inflation above 3%.