Laura Garcia
08/03/2020 - 12:16
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
Many feared it was a drain but it was no more than a drip. When banks partially reopened and enabled dollar withdrawals, there was a funnel effect for those customers who preferred to take them away. Thus, in May deposits fell US $ 900 million. But by June the drip had disappeared and in July, for the first time in quarantine, they increased.
It is the appetite for dollars that has been fueling purchases of the "solidarity quota" of US $ 200 (and encouraging maneuvers to be able to circumvent the limits of the stocks). That demand, which is reflected in the increase in savings banks (not all savers withdraw their bills to sell them in the blue) is combined with less anxiety about taking dollars from the bank (even when there is a disarmament of fixed terms in that currency).
The dollars that can be withdrawn today through the window, without any cap and always with a previous shift, usually go to the mattress or the safe. But from the opposite sidewalk, the dollars of those who buy by homebanking are automatically credited in the savings banks.
And those that do not end up in the informal market to "mash" remain as a form of hoarding that thickens dollar deposits and, as happened in July, compensates for outflows.
A trend that will be put to the test with the new surveillance to prevent access to a higher quota than allowed through "collectors" who then transfer the tickets. The blocking of accounts that banks carry out today in the event of detecting suspicious movements in this regard does not, however, prevent the withdrawal of dollars.
Today there are US $ 16,937 million in deposits in that currency (as of July 29, last data from the BCRA), against US $ 16,784 million at the end of June. This is a modest but symbolic increase of US $ 153 million.
The increase is driven by the dynamics of savings banks, where there are US $ 12,111 million, US $ 242 more than at the end of June. That month, the balance was still in the red with the $ 28 million exit, while in May the withdrawals largely offset the minimum allowed purchases with a drop of $ 860 million.
Much of the increase, however, is concentrated in the first part of the month, when people receive their income (maximum of US $ 12,226 million), and then it is deflated by the withdrawals of those who seek to take advantage of the 37% gap. between the solidarity dollar (official plus 30% tax) and the blue. Today the former is trading at $ 99 while the latter is at $ 136. You can even notice other "waves" of purchases and withdrawals throughout the month.
But there is also US $ 4,257 million in fixed terms in dollars, which in July show a drop of US $ 86 million. The previous month they had dropped US $ 10 million.
"Already in June there were 3.3 million people who bought the solidarity dollar. The volume is quite important, there were net purchases of more than US $ 600 million. What it reflects is a rejection of the peso. People spend dollars what faster than it can, although in a moment that saving has to be changed to the parallel exchange rate, "explains Amilcar Collante, chief economist at CESUR.
"Nobody wants to have the pesos. Now the Central Bank raised the minimum rate for August to give some incentive. In principle, for now, there are dollars that remain in the system but if there is a shock to expectations, for example, in relation to the debt negotiation, expectations of devaluation can skyrocket and the gap increases, with which we will surely see more puree operations, "he adds.
In terms of bleeding, the worst is over for the system and it was between August and November of last year, with a stampede that practically reduced the stock of dollar deposits in half amid the electoral tension. The worst month was September, with the output of US $ 8,000 million.
AQ