Annabella Quiroga
08/03/2020 - 11:01
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
On August 10, ANSES will begin to pay the third batch of the Emergency Family Income (IFE) . The bond that reaches 9 million people had been thinking as something exceptional to face the pandemic, but as the quarantine extended, the payments were renewed. Now the Government is analyzing whether there will be a fourth payment.
"We continue to evaluate what the accompanying policies will be for the most vulnerable sectors. The government has the political decision to make a strong state investment" to assist families in the midst of the pandemic, ANSES head Fernanda Raverta said days ago. To define how aid continues to the most vulnerable sectors of society in a year in which the economy will fall by at least 12% , the Government analyzes the evolution of five focuses:
Quarantine
The current phase of mandatory social isolation at AMBA will run, for now, until August 17. In this way, the quarantine will serve five months in the most populated urban center of the country with the majority of the labor force confined to their homes.Yesterday, the Government decided by ban to decree social gatherings throughout the country, including in those districts that do not record cases of COVID-19. How the quarantine is applied beyond August 17 will be decisive in defining whether there will be a new round of IFE to serve families with lost income. In the event that the $ 10,000 bond is chosen to be set aside, it would move to a basic income program , which would be more limited and would include the unemployed and low-income families.
Fiscal accounts
So far the three IFE payments have demanded resources from the public coffers for $ 270,000 million . Unlike other countries that use debt to cover aid in the midst of the pandemic, Argentina has access to closed markets. With the collection sinking due to quarantine, the only alternative is to resort to the contribution of the Central Bank, either with higher issuance or with transfers to the Treasury. Thus, this year's public deficit is expected to exceed 7 points of GDP. Therefore, it is not a minor issue to evaluate how the fiscal hole evolves to resolve whether there is room in the public coffers to " bank " a new round of the IFE.
job
The data for the first quarter, with only ten days of a pandemic, show that there was a year-on-year drop of 152,000 jobs for formal employees (-1.5%), an increase of 93,000 informal employees (“in black”) (+ 1, 3%) and 237,000 self-employed jobs (+ 4.5%), mostly informal, of few hours or “changas”. For the second quarter, with the quarantine in full, the job loss was potentiated, especially among the informal ones . Estimates for this year indicate that unemployment will jump from 10% to 14%. From the Ministry of Social Development they manage a plan with which they seek to create 300,000 jobs by the end of the year in social and community projects. But from the official offices they know that if employment does not rebound, social tension grows. That is why every week the openings of new sectors are closely followed to define if there is a mattress to turn off the IFE and turn to a more restrictive social policy.
Social demand
The consultants estimate that in the second quarter of this year poverty took a leap and, according to the main specialists, as Clarín reported , at least comprises 45% of the urban population (21 million people) and among those under 14 years of age. is around 60%. Although there are no official data yet, the Government already has data that allows them to see part of this progress: during the pandemic, the number of people receiving food assistance from the State rose from 8 million to 11 million . In this context, it will be complex to stop the advance of poverty. So the IFE works as a buffer against loss of income.
Consumption
The impact of the IFE on consumption is another key element that is being analyzed. From the Government's point of view, consumption will be the engine of the economic recovery . But the blow that the pandemic meant will be difficult to reverse. According to CAME data, July retail sales fell 27.7% nationwide compared to the same month the year before. In the AMBA the collapse was worse: with a stricter quarantine, the loss was 36.3%. So when President Alberto Fernández threatened in June to cut the third round of the IFE and leave the provinces with more flexible quarantines outside, the governors protested . The fear of social deterioration and the collapse of retail sales was stronger and thus Alberto decided to maintain the status quo of the IFE. Will the same thing happen this time?