Laura Garcia
08/04/2020 - 10:30
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
The market had already celebrated on Monday, as the rumor of an agreement began to gain strength in the afternoon and closed in full swing. This Tuesday, in what is known as pre-market, the first operations in the preview of the wheel on Wall Street, everything points to another day of stock euphoria with the officialization of the successful closing of the negotiation.
Thus, both bonds and stocks climb up to 10% in New York, doubling the bet after the escalation they had shown on Monday, in which the wheel was turned in the middle of the day.
But not only did the Buenos Aires stock exchange fly 6.6% on Monday, shares exploded up to 12% and country risk collapsed 6.6%. Analysts agree that after the successful agreement, and even after the recovery that foreign law bonds have already shown, there is still fuel for more increases.
"Argentina could quote perfectly below the 1000 basic points of spread in the current context. The potential to rise with the signed agreement is 25% (with an exit yield of 10%)," says José Echagüe, strategist at Consultatio. The exit yield assumed is a scenario that assumes the rate at which the bonds will be listed on the market.
Adrián Yarde Buller, chief economist at the SBS Group, points out: "Bond prices are discounting an exit yield somewhat above 13% in the short section of the curve. In approximate terms, a 12% exit yield scenario would be consistent with increases of 8% for bonds while a 10% exit yield scenario could leave increases higher than 20%, although this seems less likely if the possible agreement is not accompanied by other economic measures that strengthen Argentina's ability to pay "
Ezequiel Zambaglione, Head of Strategy at Balanz, adds: "We are working with yields of 10.50-11% and we believe that there may be returns of 15-20% although there has already been a good rally."
As for the blue, it stood still on Monday at $ 136, although in the market they speculate with a strong decrease in the exchange pressure from a settlement. This Tuesday the blue is worth almost double the official one.
NE
