While different experts in the world are rapidly seeking to develop a vaccine against the coronavirus, there are other actors who are working to develop strategies that allow the economy to be reactivated safely and with the least risk to the population. This "vaccine" for the economy seeks to mitigate and try to control the adverse effects of the pandemic on economic sectors. Like any vaccine, it is not a foolproof formula to ensure that there are no setbacks, but it is a tool that allows governments to make smart decisions about restarting economic activity so hard hit by confinement and social isolation.
The World Bank, in collaboration with the Government of Colombia, developed a dynamic dashboard that allows monitoring the situation and health trends of covid-19 in Colombia and thus analyze the economic reactivation safely at the national and local level. Dr. Jeremy Veillard, Senior Health Specialist at the World Bank, explains how this dashboard can help policymakers monitor the multiple variables of the pandemic and determine when, where and how to safely jump-start the economy, with the greatest economic benefits and labor and lower health risks.
The board
. It provides updated information in real time, every day, for each municipality, each department, each main economic sector and the country as a whole.
· Answers three fundamental questions: (1) to what extent has the virus spread and how well can the healthcare system handle current and future cases? (2) which economic sectors are relatively safer to operate? and (3) how much do these sectors contribute to employment and economic and commercial activity?
· It is public on the Government website, accessible to all Colombians.
· It is available for use by national mayors, governors and policy makers so that they can make the best possible decisions about the safe reopening of the economy.
Question. How did the idea of creating this information board come about?
Reply. When the issue of reopening the economy was addressed, it was evident that some governments were making decisions based on evidence, with a clear set of principles and rules applied consistently throughout their territory and economic sectors, while other governments they did not.
At this point there were several conditions under which a reopening could be carried out without putting the health of the populations at risk. That is when the idea came to use the large amount of data available in Colombia to systematically measure the middle ground between keeping the risks of the minimum reopening for populations and prioritizing the economic sectors that could open safely, while contributing optimally for economic growth and the preservation or creation of jobs.
Q. How does it work?
A. The information dashboard uses real-time data, which is updated daily, on the number of infections, hospitalizations in Intensive Care Units (ICU), and deaths of infected patients at the national, departmental and municipal levels. This, in order to generate an index of the spread of covid-19 that analyzes the speed and severity of transmission: how many people are infected in a given population and how sick people are infected. We compare this with the ability of the healthcare sector to handle spikes in infections. From the field of public health, we observe the capacity to carry out tests, to carry out the traceability of contacts, and to isolate or quarantine patients.
From the field of health care, we observe the availability of beds in ICUs that are equipped for the care of very sick covid-19 patients, equipped with trained health care professionals and that have enough personal protective equipment to that can meet the peaks in demand. Comparing the spread of the virus and the capacity to handle new cases gives us an idea of how intense the infection could be in a given territory. This is very important information for governments who must make decisions about the reopening or closing of areas of the economy, and it is updated every day.
From an economic point of view, we calculate a safe economic reactivation index that takes into account the capacity of economic sectors to maintain physical distance when they are in operation and we compare it with the contribution of this economic sector to economic production and to local labor market. Information on health and the economy is available in a single view, so that with a few clicks the mayor of a large metropolitan area, or a governor, can look at their data, either as a whole or in detail, to understand the dynamics of the virus and analyze the different factors on which economic sectors to open or close.
Q. Can you give an example of the results so far?
R. The speed with which the economic sectors really come into operation again matters a lot in the management of the crisis. We do not want a very rapid and massive opening in a territory to trigger an uncontrollable spike of contagion, but we also do not want everything to be closed and that irreversibly affects employment and the economy. Thus, balance is very important. It is not about closing everything again before a crisis, but about having key figures at hand to make these decisions.
If to date, one sees cases such as in the department of Atlántico or Amazonas, which have been having unfavorable results in their health indicators, the reactivation strategy should be extremely slow and very strategic. For example, one could only prioritize the reopening of some municipalities, or of safe sectors with high economic impact, or keep only the essential ones. Now, if one moves to the big cities and sees that, for example, Cali and Bogotá are at a critical moment, then the reactivation strategies should be reviewed and the speed and priority with which companies operate again, or even think about smart closures that protect the most vulnerable job. But we can also have cases such as the municipality of Tunja in the department of Boyacá, where despite the fact that there is an increase in contagion, the preparation of the health sector remains stable, which indicates that perhaps the reactivation can be faster and take greater risks in order to protect employment.
As you can see, the dashboard allows them to explore in detail both the health indicators and the situation of each economic sector and generates real-time data of great value for crisis management. In this sense, it is a work tool that will serve you in the coming months.
Q. Would this information board work for other countries in Latin America?
A. The information board was built with the Government of Colombia as a proof of concept. Not all countries have information systems as robust and reliable as those in Colombia. This is the result of an important investment that several governments have made in the past and that benefits the entire Colombian population. However, the key concepts applied to other countries would be the same and now we are thinking about applying the dashboard in other countries. There are already several stakeholders, but first we want to make sure that this first exercise is successful; We also want to add other functionalities such as the ability to predict future trends in the spread of the virus using artificial intelligence (the system can analyze data automatically and without human intervention) to help governments anticipate what it could happen.
Q. How has the work with the government been?
R. Colombia is one of the most sophisticated countries in terms of quality, availability and access to data that the World Bank works with, and we are working hard to mobilize the best of our experience in order to add value to sound public policies that the government is developing. For the development of this board, the World Bank has worked closely with the Ministry of Health; Ministry of Finance and Public Credit; Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism; the National Planning Department-DNP; the Vice Presidency and the Presidency of the Republic.
Read other texts of the Economic and Social Thermometer of America here.