08/25/2020 - 21:05
- Clarín.com
- Economy
From the start, the president of the Central Bank, put the price of the dollarand the exchange stocks at the center of the debate of a virtual meeting of bankers and finance experts.
Miguel Pesce started his talk at the IAEF virtual congress by assuring that the current exchange rate "is competitive" and that his strategy is to "avoid delay" adding that "we have the capacity to manage the exchange market as we have done until now . "
And then he added a concept that opens the discussion about the official vision and the possibilities of the Argentine economy to leave the prostration in which it has been for nine years.
Pesce said: "If the economy comes out of the well, we would not find reasons for greater restrictions in the exchange market" and that the high demand for dollars will decrease "when the country returns to growth"
According to the vision of the head of the Central, which can be extended to the entire Government, the pronounced exchange gap (more than 80% between the official dollar price and those that are freely quoted) is the result of the expectation generated by the debt swap and he predicted that once this operation is completed, the exchange gap will narrow.
As expected, he ruled out a sharp devaluation of the peso and paved the way for one of his predecessors in office, Mario Blejer, to put his finger on the wound by stating that "the only thing that makes you gain competitiveness in Argentina is the devaluation".
Blejer put one of the most serious limitations in white on black, along with the permanent change of the rules of the game by the Government as if that had no cost (the telecommunications decree is a palpable example) for growth.
A common precept circulates among economists these days: Argentina has no chance of growing if it does not increase its exports .
Among his close circle, Pesce usually says that if exports do not go quickly from the current US $ 60,000 million to US $ 90,000 million, "we are fried", and thus adds to the vision of economists and businessmen who consider that without that jump the country would not you will have enough dollars to think about growing.
In July, exports fell 16.3% , which was double the decrease of the previous month. And also, because of the primarization, China consolidated as the main buyer.
Perhaps that is why, and given the persistent purchase of dollars by the population who understand that they will save in this way, it is that the president's idea is not well understoodAlberto Fernández on the fact that the State will be the locomotive of the economy. So far the State only knows how to spend dollars, not how to generate them.
The availability of dollars, a concern for the Government on several fronts.
And in this context, two important concepts appeared in the intervention of the economist Marina Dall Poggetto at the IAEF itself.
One of them was that the "cash with liquidation" is trading "at 2002 levels" making it clear that at $ 133 that dollar that arises from buying and selling dollarized bonds and stocks is very high , almost exorbitant but is supported by the high level of mistrust that characterizes a bimonetary economy in which the peso lost value and the dollar is a refuge.
Will those who bet on the blue dollar lose? Nobody knows, but you can risk that if at some point they do not lose, the heralded return of financial confidence will be an empty set.
The other important point raised by Dall Poggeto is the need for the Government to issue a "fiscal signal" on how it plans to handle public accounts in the future after the skyrocketing public spending and the sharp drop in tax collection due to the coronavirus pandemic. and quarantine.
This signal, which will presumably be known on September 15 with the presentation of the 2021 Budget, will say whether or not the Government plans to lower the fiscal deficit from 7-8% of GDP that would close this year to 2-3% of GDP for the next one.
There are several economists who understand thatthe Government has already started the adjustment and with some intensity.
For the economist Marina Dall Poggetto, the Government needs to give signs of how it plans to handle public accounts after the pandemic.
The disengagement of pensions determines that assets grow 8 points less than inflation, the IFE bond of $ 10,000 for 9 million people is already granted every two months and not monthly and it is falling, and the Central Bank significantly lowered the last month the assistance of pesos to the Treasury to cover the fiscal red.
The adjustment, which will never be discussed publicly from the Casa Rosada, will also be necessary in the negotiations with the IMF that the Government intends to close in the first quarter of next year and then face the campaign for legislative elections.
But for that there is a long way to go and in the middle a central and sensitive test will be the creation of confidence in the economy.
That leap will not be easy for a government that threatened to expropriate Vicentin, erased at a stroke the telecommunications framework (a competitive sector that has been investing heavily) and that is betting on controls that discourage investment.
And, in addition, that it has powerful evidence about the mistrust it generates. One of them was also raised by Dall Poggetto when he asked himself: how can a country with a trade surplus like Argentina today have the pressure on the dollar that it has ?
LP