Annabella quiroga
08/31/2020 - 13:07
Clarín.com
Economy
The furor over the
purchase of dollars
in the official market continues to rise.
Central Bank data show that in July 3.9 million people bought US $ 740 million using the monthly quota of US $ 200. In August, purchases continued to rise: there would have been 5 million Argentines who pocketed
US $ 1,000 million
this way.
The data comes from a report by the consulting firm FMyA.
"In August, the demand would have accelerated and reached
almost 5 million people
buying US $ 200 for a total of US $ 1 billion."
From the ACM consulting firm, Jorge Neyro points out that the purchases of dollars in the month that ends today "have
a floor of 4.5 million people
, but they could reach 5 million."
Savings dollar purchases in August would have reached US $ 1,000 million.
An official data that will allow estimating
how much
the purchase of foreign currency
grew
this month will arrive this Wednesday when the AFIP publishes the collection data and it will be possible to see how much it pocketed for the PAIS tax.
In July that tribute totaled $ 20,017 million and accumulates $ 67,723 million in the year.
The use of the monthly quota of US $ 200 increased with the quarantine.
In the summer, only 500,000 people bought a month.
In May there were already 2.7 million;
in June, 3.3 million and in July, 3.9 million.
The economic uncertainty in the face of what is coming, the chance to save pesos that were spent on entertainment or activities that fell with the quarantine, the expectation of devaluation and, especially, the rise in the exchange rate gap, pushed the purchase of dollars.
With the blue at $ 132 for the purchase, those who access the official dollar plus the PAIS tax surcharge -now at $ 102- and sell it in the blue make a profit of
$ 6,000
by making "puree."
The $ 200 sales drain drains the reserves.
To such an extent that the Government analyzed to cancel the quota, but finally chose to keep it.
FMyA notes that this growing demand leaves the Central Bank in
a difficult situation
.
They detail that in August, agriculture began to drop foreign currency sales to US $ 1.7 billion - below the June peak that had been US $ 2.5 billion - and the BCRA had to sell
US $ 1.1 billion
, while in July had sold $ 581 million.
FMyA points out that with this level of supply, the demand between imports, interest, dollar savings and financial loans reached nearly
US $ 2,700 million
in the month
.
If the devaluation rhythm continues as it comes, "the BCRA would continue to sell close to
US $ 1,100 million per month
and net reserves, which at the end of August were US $ 8,000 million, would fall to US $ 3,000 million in December and to zero in April 2021 ".
Estimates by Fernando Marull's consulting firm indicate that agricultural exporters will continue to lower their liquidation to levels of
US $ 1.3 billion in November.
On the import side, they expect them to rise but with payments controlled by the Central.
In this way, the “settled” trade balance will be around US $ 700 million, well below the “accrued” trade balance of US $ 1.2 billion per month.
Stress test
But the biggest risks in this scenario are that during the next few months agriculture will liquidate less (close to US $ 1 billion per month), importers pay more and the saving dollar will continue at levels of US $ 1 billion per month.
"There
the BCRA will sell close to US $ 2 billion
per month and
net reserves reach zero in December
.
"
For Marull, in this context "the BCRA will first try to cut savings dollar and then the payment of imports."
According to FMyA, the Central "will seek to
reduce the exchange gap by selling
part of the Argentine bonds with which it entered the Exchange this week (for US $ 18,000 million nominal value). With this, it will temporarily be able to control the dollar with liquidity at the cost of surpluses. offer bonds, but the country risk will increase due to the greater offer. "
Dollar purchases put pressure on Central Bank reserves.
Photo Marcelo Carroll
Another option "is to activate part of the swap with China (today US $ 19,000 million), although these dollars have a" very high "cost, 7% per year in dollars."
"This BCRA strategy can lower the exchange rate gap, improve the official currency flow on the margin and delay a currency crisis (a devaluation), but it does not prevent it," says Marull.
In view of the furor over the saving dollar, for Neyro, "for now the Central aims to see if there is any change in expectations that will make people demand less dollars. But basically, it will have to
make an adjustment
if this continues. I don't think That they bring the quota to zero, but yes some quota of quantities or procedures. We will have a thermometer tomorrow and the day after when the new month begins and the quota is reactivated. "
AQ