The uncertainty about how the pandemic will evolve in the coming months has caused the oil market to retreat in the face of a possible long-term crisis.
Both the International Energy Association (IEA) and the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) this week lowered their forecast for crude demand for the remainder of the year.
Although the IEA's downward revision is slightly more optimistic, both figures are around 90 million barrels a day and would return global oil demand to 2013 levels.
"We expect the recovery of oil demand to slow down notably in the second half of 2020," the IEA has shown itself to be that forceful, according to statements collected by Reuters.
The association places its crude consumption forecast at 91.7 million barrels per day in 2020 -8.4 million less than in 2019-, as published in its monthly report on Tuesday.
"We are beginning to see how the recovery in demand is slowing, in part because we have a resurgence of the pandemic in Europe," summed up Neil Atkinson, a director of the AIT, in an interview on Bloomberg.
The agency dependent on the OECD has lowered its prospects for oil demand in the third quarter to 93.7 million barrels per day –0.1 million less than expected– and in the fourth to 96 million per day –0 , 6 million less - due to the rebound in cases of covid-19, the confinement measures, the maintenance of teleworking and the weakness of the aeronautical sector.
By 2021, the agency estimates that demand will recover by 5.4 million barrels per day, reaching 97.1 million.
Similarly, OPEC on Monday revised its estimates of world oil demand in 2020 down to 90.2 million barrels per day, 9.5 million less compared to 2019 and 400,000 less than expected last month, a greater drop than that calculated by the IEA.
It also lowered expectations by the same amount for next year.
OPEC expects crude oil consumption to rise to 96.9 million barrels a day in 2021, 400,000 less than expected.
"Given the considerable uncertainties, the rebound predicted for 2021 will not be enough to cover the demand lost this year and will not soon reach pre-crisis levels of 100 million barrels per day," said Mohammed Sanuski, secretary general of the OPEC.
Much greater has been the bump that the BP oil company report published this Tuesday has caused, which envisions a possible drop in oil consumption of up to 80% in the next 30 years in the worst case scenario.
Specifically, the British multinational predicts a 10% reduction in consumption by 2050 in the
Business-as-usual
scenario
(BAU, if everything remains stable), around 55% cut in the
Rapid
scenario
(fast) and reaches 80 % in
Net Zero
(net zero emissions).
In the latter two, demand never recovers after the COVID-19 crisis.
In the study, the oil company attributes the decrease in demand for crude "to the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transport" and, in all three scenarios, the use of oil in vehicles reaches its peak in the middle and end of the The 2020s. Although in the three contexts analyzed the demand for energy continues to grow due to the improvement in humanity's living standards, crude oil - which in 2018 participated in 90% of the transfers - will be used in 80% of 2050 transports for the BAU scenario, in 40% of Rapid and only 20% of Net Zero.
The same path will follow the dependence on hydrocarbons in the production of energy, according to BP.
While crude participated in around 85% of electricity generation in 2018, it will do so between 65 and 20% in 2050 depending on the scenario and the increase in renewable energy will be between 20 and 60%.