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The OECD is less catastrophic for 2020, but expects a more modest recovery in 2021

2020-09-16T10:31:50.689Z

The organization stresses, however, that “these prospects are very uncertain” because they depend on “the assumptions relating to the spread of the virus and the evolution of macroeconomic policies”.



The global recession should be less pronounced than expected in 2020, said the OECD in its economic outlook published on Wednesday, the rapid and consistent reaction of states having helped to limit the damage, but the recovery should be weaker in 2021 than it is anticipated it in June.

Read also: Was the recession twice as bad in France as in Germany?

After accelerating in the spring, when containment measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic were eased, "

the pace of the global recovery has lost some of its momentum over the summer months, especially in the weaker economies. more advanced,

”notes the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The Paris-based organization thus expects a 4.5% decline in global GDP in 2020 and then a 5% rebound in 2020. In June, it predicted a 6% recession and a 5.2% recovery.

However, she underlines that "

these prospects are very uncertain

" because they depend "

on the assumptions relating to the spread of the virus and the evolution of

macroeconomic

policies

".

Disparities between countries

In addition, this overall figure masks "

considerable differences between countries

", between China (+ 1.8%) which should be the only economy in the panel to show growth in 2020 and India, which entered the economy later. pandemic, whose GDP is expected to fall by 10.2%.

In 2020, the United States (-3.8%) should ultimately do better than the world average, and Germany (-5.4%) better than the euro zone (-7.9%).

France (-9.5%), Italy (-10.5%) and the United Kingdom (-10.1%) should, on the contrary, bear the brunt of the blow, and rebound less strongly in 2021 than what OECD expected in June.

However, the OECD is clear: without the rapid and massive reaction of governments, without the consequent intervention of central banks, "

the contraction of activity would have been much more significant

".

It also invites them to continue to support activity in 2021, especially as "

uncertainty remains high and confidence fragile

".

Read also: The recession in Italy could be less severe than expected

The pandemic, which has killed at least 930,000 people, including nearly 200,000 in the United States, is accelerating in India, which on Wednesday crossed the threshold of five million people infected while Europe faces an increase in the number case, the start of the school year and the next arrival of autumn.

Source: lefigaro

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