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Construction workers in Hanover (archive picture)
Photo: Julian Stratenschulte / dpa
As a result of the corona crisis, undeclared work in the EU is likely to increase significantly.
This is the result of calculations by the economist Friedrich Schneider from mid-September, which are available to SPIEGEL.
In Germany, the share of the shadow sector in the German economy is likely to grow from around nine to eleven percent this year.
In the hotel and restaurant industry alone, the extent of undeclared work is expected to increase from around 55.2 billion euros to 60.7 billion euros, writes the scientist from Johannes Kepler University in Linz.
The main reasons are the collapse of the economy, the increase in short-time work and growing unemployment.
Because incomes are tending to decline, more people than usual are currently trying to earn something by ignoring the tax authorities.
In other EU countries, the situation is no better, Schneider continues: In Austria the shadow sector is likely to grow from 5.8 to 7.3 percent, in France from 12.4 to almost 15.9 percent and in Italy even from 18, 7 to almost 22 percent.
Numerous factors are included in Schneider's calculations - including the amount of direct and indirect taxes, the amount of cash per capita and the density of regulation with which undeclared work is combated.
The number of self-employed, access to education and the general constitution of the rule of law are also taken into account in the calculation model.
Undeclared workers are not always only active in their home countries.
In poorer EU countries such as Romania or Bulgaria in particular, there are many migrant workers who take on day labor jobs in richer member states such as Denmark, Germany or the Netherlands: They clean staircases, unload containers, cut up meat, clear containers in ports, clean offices and Hotel rooms, take care of green spaces and care for the elderly.
Without them, many foods and services would be significantly more expensive.
Such migrant workers toil up to twelve hours a day, up to six days a week, for five to ten euros an hour, without occupational safety, health insurance or valid contracts.
Most of them accept life without collateral.
The bottom line is that they usually still earn more in precarious employment than in a proper job at home.
If they can find work there at all.
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