The blue dollar fell to $ 140 but the country risk rose again strongly and distrust grows

Laura Garcia

09/17/2020 - 20:46

• Clarín.com

• Economy

It was another day of severe punishment from the markets.

This is what this escalation in country risk of almost 10% in two days suggests: the doubts generated by this post-exchange Argentina that repeats itself at a time when it seemed, after fixing the debt, to begin to sort itself out.

Even when the dollars took a break after the initial readjustment after the new exchange measures -

- yesterday there was a new stampede on Wall Street of everything that smelled of Argentina.

The country risk climbed 4.3% to 1,236 points,

after having shot up 5.5% the previous day.

Argentine shares listed in New York fell by up to 7%, with what in the year some companies

And

after having sunk 5.3% the day before, with reds that in many cases exceed 20% only so far in September.

To top it off, in the official market,

private estimates speak of at least US $ 40 million, cutting three days of modest amounts of foreign currency.

Many point to the inability of the Government to capitalize on recent achievements such as the swap or the Budget, with at least the outline of a path.

And create the

But former Finance Secretary

relativizes: "Successful swap to some extent. Due to the level of adherence. But not if we look at the bond rates that indicate that

They are rates much higher than those of others. countries "and adds ironically:" In the world there are more dollars than necessary and here just the opposite. "

"Regarding the Budget, it is very complex and you have to give it credibility. As it stands now, it is a law with good intentions. From there to materialize it is something else. And you don't just have to look at the exchange issue, which will have more or less success in the short term, "he explains.

"It is about the deficit and how to finance it, but also

how to think of the country as a place of opportunities to invest and thus boost the economy," he says.

On capital controls and their influence on negotiations with the IMF, Marx clarifies that in various situations they were accepted for a time.

"What is required is

and from there, yes, an orderly exit from capital control."

These days, the still weak construction of somewhat more positive expectations seems to have broken.

, from Eco Go, sums it up like this: "The path that the Government took to try to

exacerbated the lack of confidence

in terms of the fiscal hole and the monetary surplus, in addition to putting

, in a context of negative signals for exports given the exchange rate gap and devaluation / inflation expectations. "

"It will be key for the government to

in terms of fiscal consolidation and monetary consistency within the framework of an agreement with the Fund, with accompanying political signals," he warns.

"Otherwise, the exchange rate gap and country risk will continue to be pressured and

Central Bank's

, risking a scenario of accelerating inflation that makes the current rate of slippage of the official exchange rate unsustainable ", says Furiase.

Nadín Argañaraz

, from the IARAF, also talks about the lack of an exit strategy.

"We have a deficit of 8% of GDP and the planned reduction in the Budget means practically eliminating the spending of the pandemic, which in this context is totally uncertain. The Budget is key to give a signal but in the middle these measures arise to the short term because the continuity of the

".

"Those of us who analyze the economy know that the stocks end up generating a lower supply of dollars. Meanwhile there is talk of a tax reform, a tax on wealth that is not in the Budget is being discussed, and they talk about taxing non-residents with active in Argentina.

GB