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Super stocks to the test: the reserve bleeding would stop only for a while

2020-09-21T02:22:53.429Z

Analysts believe that the new restrictions on buying dollars are not effective. Last week the Central had to part with US $ 140 million.



Laura Garcia

09/20/2020 - 20:14

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

The hemorrhage of dollars put the

Central Bank to the limit.

With liquid reserves below US $ 3,000 million - which the entity has at its immediate disposal to intervene in the market - the super stocks were born.

The market was shaken: it was throbbing measures but it did not seem prepared for so much.

This week the game is played

: how much there was overreaction in the collapse of the bonds, what will be the new floor of free dollars and above all, what will happen to the reserves (US $ 42,500 million).

Thursday and Friday were not good signs

.

The entity had to put on the table about US $ 140 million.

And analysts don't expect things to change too much: at best, from bleeding to trickle and with an impact set to dissipate soon.  

"With these measures, it is possible that the BCRA will be able to stop the strong drain on reserves, but for a time," says

Fernando Marull, from FMyA

.

"The BCRA aims to lower the dollar saving (dollarization), the cancellation of financial debt (corporate bonds) and the consumption of credit cards abroad. If in these three accounts, the demand is reduced by 50% (assumption) , demand could fall by US $ 1 billion, although this is not enough to reverse the negative dynamics. "

According to his calculations, in a month like August, with a strong drainage of reserves (US $ 1.25 billion), it would still have had to sell US $ 241 million.

A palpable reduction but one that is far, for example, from generating the conditions to reinforce the coffers. 

Marull continues: "But if the BCRA continues to lose reserves, we imagine that it will tighten the stocks again. Most likely, it will further limit the commercial flow: imports (final goods). Then, yes, there will be no choice but to

leave float the exchange rate (devalue)

".

Nery Persichini, Head of Strategy at GMA Capital,

proposes to look at the last stocks and recalls that the net reserves were exhausted: "The shortage of dollars never managed to be reversed. The genuine inflow of foreign exchange, from exports, was discouraged by a dollar backward and not very competitive. The trade balance, which started with an excess of US $ 9,000 million in 2011, 4 years later marked a red of US $ 3,400 million. And the star of the variables, the net reserves, ended practically zero ".

Gabriel Caamaño, from Consultora Ledesma

, explains: "To put it simply,

the problem is increasingly that no one sells and not so much those who buy.

 There are few left buying from the official who is not commercial. These measures will deepen this phenomenon that Almost no one sells. Besides that by not correcting the interest rate, they continue to leverage them. Nor do they correct the expectations of adjustment of the nominal exchange rate. Rather, they confirm them, by demonstrating that it is not sustainable. Sooner rather than later this does again water, like last time and before. "

Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Economic Advisors,

thinks: "I don't think this is going to change the bottom line. It is also taking place in a very complicated political moment that does not help to calm down at all. The first thing we should see it's the reserves slowing the decline. Maybe they can do it for a while. " 

Beyond reserves, collateral damage piles up.

Sovereign bonds accumulated drops of 10% and the country risk jumped to 1,256 units, 300 points above Ecuador, which restructured almost at par with Argentina.

And 

the securities yield more than 13.5%, close to pre-trade levels.

"This puts at risk the swaps that are being carried out in the Argentine provinces (PBA, Mendoza or Córdoba). And it will be very difficult for companies to achieve voluntary swaps," says Marull.

To all this, stocks lost up to 15% of their value and corporate bonds cut 10%.

"A Merval in US $ 300 measured by cash with settlement is similar

to the post-nationalization value of YPF in 2012.

To put into context how the business climate is these days ...", Persichini points out. 


And of course

free dollars skyrocketed.

The gap between the official and the cash settlement reached 80%, scraping its maximum of 85%.

During the 2011-2015 stocks, with an average gap of 40%, in only 4% of the days it was higher than 65%, according to GMA Capital.

The logic is well known: producers retain or save on grain while waiting for an exchange rate jump, while importers accelerate purchases.

More demand and less supply.

The Central, again, supplying with reserves.

Source: clarin

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