09/30/2020 - 12:40
The reloaded stocks had an impact not only on savers who want to acquire foreign currency: it also shook the market and worsened the main exchange variables that the super stocks sought to contain.
These are the goals against that the reloaded stocks got into the Argentine economy.
Increase in the exchange gap
After the tightening of the stocks, the exchange gap grew even more.
Since September 15, the day the new measures were announced, the dollar counted with liqui, the operation that allows foreign currency to be transferred abroad, increased $ 20. Yesterday it closed at $ 148. Thus,
the gap with the wholesale dollar went from 70 % to 96%
In the same period, the blue dollar went from $ 131 to $ 146. The expansion of the exchange gap fuels the expectations of devaluation and the vicious circle that increases the demand for dollars.
Rise of country risk
The JP Morgan indicator that measures the over-cost that Argentina should pay to borrow was 1120 basis points a fortnight ago.
It had fallen sharply after the debt swap.
But with a super stocks, uncertainty increased and the prices of new securities began to deflate, which was correlated with the rise in country risk, which today stands at 1302 points.
For their part, the bonds began to fall in price and in this way the yield rose, which already exceeds 14%.
Bad news for Argentina, which expected to have an "exit yield" after the exchange, a rate of return, around 10%.
Argentine stocks followed a similar path to bonds, especially those listed on Wall Street.
With the post-trade euphoria they had marked increases that broke with the super stocks.
The fact is that one of the new restrictions is one that especially hits companies.
Now companies that have debts abroad will only be able to acquire
40% of the currencies they need
to meet these maturities
in the official market
The rest will have to be refinanced or covered with their own funds.
Thus, the positive effect of the swap on the private sector disappears, as it was expected to contribute to improving financing conditions for companies.
In this context
the shares collapsed around 25%
in two weeks.
The new restrictions and the way to implement them triggered atavistic fears of the Argentines and this promoted the outflow of dollar deposits.
Since September 15,
almost US $ 1 billion has been removed
from the accounts that savers have in banks.
This implies a drop of 5% that brings the stock to US $ 16,500 million.
the fears are unfounded
: the system is solid and the high bank reserve requirements leave the dollars of the savers safe.
But with the rise in the gap, uncertainty is enhanced and rationality is diluted.
To implement the new restrictions, the banks had to adapt their systems and the official bodies had to design a channel that allows them to automatically compare who is authorized to buy and who is not.
This took ten days, and during that time,
retailers were unable to buy dollars
This only increased the nervousness of savers and mistrust, which increased negative expectations.
Loss of reserves
Despite the fact that
the main objective of the stocks is to stop the outflow of reserves, the truth is that it
failed to cut the bleeding
Since the implementation of the new measures, the Central Bank's reserves have fallen by US $ 630 million.
And despite the fact that there were eight business days without homebanking to buy currencies, the monetary authority had to go out to sell an average of US $ 40 million per day to cover market demand and prevent the price of the dollar from skyrocketing beyond what that the government wants.
Delay in the settlement of exports
According to data from the Ministry of Economic Policy, the settlement of foreign exchange in the countryside in September was
than in the same month of 2019. Agro-dollars are practically the only foreign exchange income that the country has.
But the jump in the exchange gap takes away incentives to liquidate exports.
Soybean producers receive $ 53 per dollar, discounting the effect of withholdings, and find that they have to go to buy foreign currency at the MEP dollar ($ 138) or the CCL ($ 148).
Now the government is trying to convince farmers to sell the 34 million soybeans and corn they have in storage, which represent US $ 10.6 billion.
To seduce them, they consider the possibility of
, but market sources say that there is little chance that they will achieve it with such a marked exchange gap.
The dollar, a trickle of bad news for the Government
An international bank that advised Argentina in the swap is optimistic in the agreement with the IMF