Democratic hopeful Joe Biden with Kamala Harris.OLIVIER DOULIERY / AFP / GETTY IMAGES /
Kamala Harris, the daughter of Jamaican and Indian immigrants, is the first black woman and the first Asian-American to be nominated for the vice presidency of the United States.
Together with fellow Democrat Joe Biden, he has pledged to return the economy, especially in social protection and equality, to the lands of Barack Obama.
The transformation wave, if they win the White House elections on Tuesday, November 3, will leave the companies winners and losers.
Despite the cynicism of the policy - "campaign promises are often not kept," recalls Libby Cantrill, public affairs director for manager Pimco - some companies could face inclement days.
In 2019, in an interview on CNN, Harris defended the idea of "breaking" Facebook.
However, Silicon Valley moguls have breathed easy when reading the news of his appointment on their phones.
The proposals of other Democratic candidates like Susan Rice or Tammy Duckworth - who had less contact with the technology industry - were tougher.
Elizabeth Warren, for example, is not only in favor of chopping up the social network, but also Google.
So the praises have been poured out like honey.
“Joe Biden, you've made a great choice!” Laurene Powell Jobs, Steve Jobs's billionaire and widow, tweeted on August 11.
Even Sheryl Sandberg, Mark Zuckerberg's deputy on Facebook, wrote on her Instagram: "This is a great time for black women and for all the girls in the world."
Nobody doubts it.
"But there is a lot of pressure, especially from the more progressive Democratic wing, for technology companies to pay more," warns Carlota García, principal investigator for the United States at the Elcano Royal Institute.
Because if the economic support of this plutocratic sector is analyzed, the seams can be felt with the fingertips.
"All the major tech companies are leaning to the left in their campaign contribution habits," explains Andrew Mayersohn, a researcher at the Center for Responsive Politics, who looks at the distribution of election funds.
“However, most of that money comes from company employees, rather than from the firms themselves or their political action committees.
So nobody can guess if it reflects the economic interest of the sector or only the type of people who work in these companies.
Also, Biden has been somewhat tough on his antitrust vision.
Only his campaign slogan (
Build Back Better
, "rebuild better") is the nemesis reflected in the mirror
of Trump's
Make America Great Again
, who, by the way, has not stopped incessantly attacking Silicon Valley.
Behind this reconstruction there is an investment in infrastructure (with an ambitious proposal for affordable housing, which will push the engineering and construction companies) of 1.3 trillion dollars, the increase of the federal minimum wage to 15 dollars (“which could stop the profitability of companies ”, warns Julius Baer bank) and an increase in income, capital gains and corporate taxes.
Companies would go from paying 21% to 28%.
“This represents an average profit drop of 5%,” calculates Roberto Scholtes, Strategy Director at UBS.
That rise "would hit technology and health companies disproportionately," warn Thomas Costerg and Jacques Henry, economists at Pictet WM, the manager.
However, they are threats that do not scare Wall Street.
The candidate looks like one of their own.
"The rich are just as patriotic as the poor," Biden defended last year during a fundraiser at the Carlyle Hotel in Manhattan.
"This support from the markets is important because it is an antenna to the
main street
(the real economy)," says Emilio Ontiveros, president of AFI.
Pharmacy and energy
But neither Biden nor Harris are in politics to leave companies where they found them.
Experts shoot predictions.
The industries most affected, sums up Daniel Morgan, vice president of Synovus Trust Company, will be pharmaceuticals (they will have restrictions on the prices of some medicines), natural gas (due to the increase in
fracking
limitations
) and coal (due to the increase in green energy subsidies).
Biden wants totally clean energy (albeit at the cost of adding more cost and red tape to hydrocarbons) and achieving net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest.
In this strategy, it has committed five trillion dollars in the next decade, a carbon tax, the extinction - reveals a job of BBVA - of new oil leases in federal territory and offshore drilling.
Windward airs for electric vehicles, renewable energy, solar panels, battery storage and wind turbines.
Less tension with Europe, a reduction in pressure on the automobile industry, a return to the Paris Agreement regarding CO2 emissions, revitalization of rail passenger transport and even steel tariffs could be reversed.
This hypothetical blue wave (the Democratic victory including the control of the Senate and the House of Representatives), should not be fooled, nor does it make the markets fall in love.
But, for the first time, they are concerned about Trump's chaotic governing style.
"I have seen a significant number of people put aside their short-term economic interest because they value being citizens in a democracy," reflects, in
The New York Times,
Seth Klarman, founder of the hedge fund Baupost.
And that happens to settle that eternally pending account of a public health system.
“The pharmaceutical sector will be under pressure in a Biden government.
But hospitals will benefit if it manages to pass a health bill in Congress that helps shore up Obamacare [health regulations created by Barack Obama], ”says Libby Cantrill.
The other face
A second term by Donald Trump would bring more laws that would hinder trade and immigration, low taxes and more regulation.
“There is no specific sector that has an interest in a return to a kind of cold war.
To do business in this century, multilateralism is essential ”, argues Emilio Ontiveros, president of AFI.
But if Trump won, the world would have a map with haunting meridians.
A lower corporate tax would benefit the computer industry, especially the giants of the sector.
There would also be black numbers for coal, oil, the defense industry, aerospace and private insurers.
In infrastructure, the current president proposes an investment of two billion dollars to improve roads, ports and bridges in poor condition.