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Employment: the unemployment rate could reach 9.7% at the end of 2020, according to INSEE

2020-10-06T17:53:55.666Z


At the end of the year, "it is not excluded that 10% will be reached", underlines Julien Pouget, head of the economic department.


Due to the rebound of the pandemic in France and the new restrictions, INSEE is reviewing its economic forecasts.

While it anticipated an unemployment rate of 9.5% in September for the end of the year, the institute now expects it to rise to 9.7%, according to an economic report published on Tuesday.

"It is not excluded that the 10% is reached," said Julien Pouget, head of the economic department at INSEE.

Despite the drop in employment, the unemployment rate fell in the first half of the year (to 7.1%) because during confinement a large number of unemployed people had interrupted their research, leading to a drop in the number of unemployed in the sense of the International Labor Office (ILO).

This effect will largely fade in the second half of the year, with an unemployment rate forecast at 9% in the third quarter then at 9.7% at the end of 2020. This increase is the consequence of the massive job cuts that took place in the first half of the year (715,000 salaried jobs), which should increase very slightly in the second half of the year to reach 730,000 salaried jobs and 840,000 jobs in total.

Stability resulting from two opposite effects

This net decline in employment (of the order of -3% on an annual average) would however be much less marked than that of the GDP, "because of both the partial, one-off or longer-term activity system. , but also a phenomenon of labor retention on the part of certain companies which would retain at this stage a large part of their workforce despite the contraction of their activity, ”according to INSEE.

Almost a third of the job losses in the first half of the year were concentrated in the durably affected sectors (passenger transport, aeronautics, accommodation and catering, cultural and sports activities) even though they only represent 13% of the total. salaried employment.

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In the second half of the year, the virtual stability of salaried employment is the consequence of two opposing effects: “on the one hand, the rebound in activity and the resumption of hiring in certain sectors (industry excluding transport equipment, construction, retail , business and non-market services) would boost employment;

on the other hand, the workforce would continue to decline in sectors affected durably by the crisis (transport and household services) ”.

In accommodation and catering, "after a slight rebound in the summer, activity is likely to remain permanently degraded".

The "great uncertainty" of the coming months

More generally, the recovery of the French economy should come to a halt in the last quarter with a stagnation of the GDP, due to the new restrictions imposed on certain sectors and the uncertainties on the evolution of the health situation.

INSEE confirms its forecast of a 9% recession this year, but it had so far forecast a small growth of 1% of GDP in the last quarter, after the strong rebound in the third, estimated at + 16%.

The Institute is now assuming that activity will be further penalized in the services most affected by the epidemic, such as hotels and restaurants, transport or leisure activities, and that investment will no longer increase. , “By wait-and-see” companies.

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“This forecast reflects the great uncertainty that characterizes these coming months,” commented Julien Pouget.

without ruling out the risk of a relapse in GDP.

Almost a third of companies still do not know how to estimate the moment when they will return to normal activity, ie "the highest proportion since the start of the crisis".

Source: leparis

All business articles on 2020-10-06

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