SPIEGEL economic monitor: Germans are leaving corona worries behind

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Passers-by on Kaufinger Strasse in Munich (end of August): Germans do not expect any structural economic crisis

Photo: Peter Kneffel / picture alliance / dpa

In the past few weeks there have been increasing signs that justify optimism: whether it's sales in retail, the mood in the executive suite or the falling unemployment rate - there are many indications that the economy in Germany is rapidly emerging from its deepest slump Recovered after the war.

Especially since this slump during the lockdown in spring, according to the latest data, was somewhat smaller than calculated in the first estimates.

It now even looks as if the decline in economic output in 2020 as a whole will not be quite as great as in the financial crisis year 2009.

The Germans seem to have had a good sense of what is gradually being reflected in these objective and measurable indicators for some time.

This is shown by the SPIEGEL economic monitor, for which the opinion research institute Civey continuously surveys the population on a representative basis.

This survey over a long period of time makes it possible to classify the current expectations of citizens with regard to general and personal economic development as well as their fears and concerns and their priorities.

The result: In the perception of the Germans, pre-crisis normality prevails again with regard to the economic and social situation.

At the beginning of June, the worst of the Corona economic crisis had already lain behind the German citizens.

This mood has now either stabilized or even improved.

So that is

still almost as little widespread as before the lockdown.

In March and April this had increased drastically, 20 percent of those questioned with a job expressed the fear of losing their job within a year, almost twice as much as in normal times.

But just as quickly this fear disappeared in most - though not in all.

Since then, the proportion of those who are worried about their jobs has remained stable between 13 and 14 percent, two to three percentage points more than before the crisis.

Around four out of five employees, however, fear no job loss.

By contrast, the

in Germany

has not remained stable but has improved dramatically since June

.

In the meantime, a clear relative majority of 46 percent assess them as "good" again, and the trend is rising sharply.

Exactly one third of the respondents, however, consider the situation to be "bad", but this proportion is falling rapidly and steadily.

In absolute terms, the perception of the economy is not quite at the normal level before the crisis, when almost all of the respondents rated the situation as good and less than 30 percent as bad.

But the trend suggests that this level could be reached again in the coming weeks.

The prerequisite for this, however, is that the course of the pandemic does not cause further setbacks.

In view of the rapid increase in the number of infections, especially in neighboring European countries, and the impending cold and wet months, there is a risk of renewed interruption of supply chains or even renewed drastic contact restrictions.

The Germans, however, do not seem to be counting on it, as their expectation of

shows.

It should be noted here that people in Germany are traditionally rather pessimistic about the near future.

Before the crisis, almost all of the respondents expected the situation to deteriorate, slightly more than a third expected no change and significantly less than a tenth expected an improvement.

Currently, however, 54 percent expect at least no deterioration (28 percent an improvement, 26 percent no change).

The relatively low concern about the general economic situation and one's own job is also largely expressed in the question of 

 in economic and social policy.

The "most important topic" is not specifically asked here.

There is a big difference: a problem can definitely be rated as the most important thing without the need for action being seen - if there is a feeling that enough is already being done to solve it.

It is noticeable that the first three places contain topics that are only marginally related to the current corona crisis: economic and social inequality with 21 percent of the mentions as well as the compatibility of business with environmental protection and security in old age (in each case 15 percent).

However, at 13 percent, significantly more respondents than before the crisis (eight percent) name the area of ​​"upheaval in the world of work and unemployment" as the most urgent area in need of action.

This could well indicate a higher awareness that the labor market, which had been booming for years, was weakened during the crisis - but it could also be an expression of the fact that many people continue to work in the home office and the crisis has also resulted in new work processes in many companies.

The resulting burdens and the need for new regulations could also have led to the higher weighting of this topic.

Overall, the Germans clearly seem to view the corona crisis as a short to medium-term exceptional situation - and not as a system-threatening structural crisis.

When asked what their

look like

time, they answer in their entirety as they did before the outbreak of the pandemic.

During the lockdown, a sharp rise in the proportion of those who feared negative effects for themselves in the long term was observed for a short time, but this proportion fell almost as quickly to the level between 25 and 30 percent.

At 48 percent, however, most still believe that their situation will be little different in five years from now than it is today, slightly more than everyone and one in five believes that they will be better off then.

More than half a year after the pandemic began to affect Germany, something like a return to normal can be observed in terms of the perception of the economic situation.

For many branches of the economy that depend on consumers' willingness to spend, this is encouraging - because those who are worried about their own economic situation or that of the country are more likely to withhold their money than to spend it.

At least in this regard, Germany is entering the first autumn of the corona pandemic with good prerequisites.

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