Laura Garcia
10/05/2020 - 20:38
Clarín.com
Economy
Some things have already started to change.
After Friday's advance of 70 cents, yesterday the wholesale dollar rose just six, in this
new erratic trajectory that the currency will follow.
But the other pillar of the new scheme, the incentive to supply, will only be
felt this Tuesday when the reduction in withholdings takes effect
.
A measure to which analysts attribute the goodness of a
short-term relief with which to buy time.
Meanwhile, in a minimal market, with very few businesses, the Central Bank managed at least to
cut sales yesterday to US $ 10 million
from the US $ 150 million that is estimated to be put on the table on Friday.
The entity also
changed its intervention pattern
by breaking with the routine of setting a sell position at the opening, a price that guides the market, which gave the wheel much more volatility.
The closing was $ 76.81 / 77.0.1
Equally notorious was how the Government came out, as on Friday, to
cool the parallel prices
at the end of the day, when financial dollars were already climbing more than 4%, putting pressure on the gap.
Once again
, it would have been through the sale of ANSeS securities that the escalation at least eased.
Thus, while
the blue remained quiet at $ 150
after having advanced 3 pesos on Friday, the Stock Exchange dollar ended with a rise of 1.9% to $ 140.8
and the cash with liquidation with an advance of 2.6% to $ 149.5.
Adrián Yarde Buller, chief economist of the SBS Group, says: "We may have a few days of relief, but I do not believe that the measures will achieve stabilization of the economy because they do not attack the underlying problems.
Announcements of greater fiscal prudence are needed
that allow us to imagine a path of less monetary emission, which would help to decompress the expectations of inflation and devaluation that are weighing so much ".
For Matías Rajnerman, chief economist at Ecolatina, "It may mitigate the loss of reserves a bit but it will not significantly change the dynamics in this context of so much pressure and urgency.
Such a small reduction in withholdings and for such a short term it's not that attractive
. "
And he adds: "Even this of the greater volatility of the exchange rate and the expectation of a devaluation, which is convenient for the agricultural sector, acts as a contrary incentive. It can help the Government on the margin. But I emphasize that it is
a policy a bit contradictory.
For those who have to liquidate the dollars, the devaluation is convenient. To say that this rate of devaluation is going to increase at the same time as it seeks to increase the liquidation is a problem. "
Guido Lorenzo, effective director of LCG, points out: "I suppose that the measure was discussed and little by little a flow of foreign currency will enter that will be enough for the BCRA to stop losing reserves on a daily basis. However, it must be taken into account that this
is It occurs in a situation of complete abnormality in the exchange market.
Restrictions on the purchase of dollars by financial account and also restrictions on imports, so the problem is far from solving the problem with this measure. "
According to Amilcar Collante, an economist at CESUR, "if they leave everything the same, it
is clear that the market does not trust this package of measures
that the Government launched. It was not a carrot enough in terms of withholdings. You have an offer that more or less Around US $ 3,500 million is estimated to be settled until the end of the year, but it is clearly insufficient in the context of the strong mistrust that the Government has been suffering and that has worsened in the last month. "
"If it is simply," he says, "the exchange issue will not have a solution and the drainage of reserves will continue with a minor trickle. The gap continues to push. This is a patch. In the right direction, because it is an incentive . But
it fails to be perceived as a plan.
And in the short term there is a tool that could be used but the interest rate seems to be closed. "
