Gustavo Bazzan
10/13/2020 6:00 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 10/13/2020 7:17 AM
In the economic team, when the discussion arises about the exchange rate, the gap and the different values of the dollar according to the market in which it operates,
the discussion always arises of what to do with the dollar Cash with Settlement
.
The latest restrictions -
parking for 15 days
between the time of purchase and sale, prohibition of operating for those who have domicile abroad - did nothing more than overheat the price of the CCL dollar, whose movement has a greater or lesser "expansionary effect" on the
Dollar Stock Exchange
(similar operation but that is resolved in the local market. And from now on in the
blue.
On Friday, the gap between the dollar counted with liquidation and the official one was located at 100%, taking the wholesale dollar as a reference:
154 pesos counted with liquidation against 77 pesos of the wholesale dollar.
The Central Bank technicians have identified the size of the problem "counted with liquid":
7,000 million dollars.
That would be the amount that dozens of
foreign hedge funds
that entered the local market until 2019 to
carry out a carry trade
with the high rates that the Central Bank paid in pesos
are wanting to obtain
, and that they could not flee the country to save themselves from the
brutal devaluations
that have occurred, with greater or lesser intensity, since March 2018.
The operation counted with liquid is this: bonds denominated in dollars are bought with pesos, and they are sold against dollars deposited in an account abroad.
That for those who want to obtain dollars outside the country.
The inverse is for those who want to bring dollars and get pesos in Argentina.
He who wants pesos here could, today, be taking advantage
The carry trade is also simple to understand:
dollars are brought in from abroad, exchanged for pesos and invested at the local interest rate.
The business works wonders if the interest rate paid by, for example, the Central Bank for its bills, exceeds the expected rate of devaluation.
With the dollar still, everyone smiles.
If the dollar moves unexpectedly, as has happened since 2018, there is
panic
.
If the dollar shoots up from $ 46 to $ 57, as happened between the Friday before STEP and the Monday after,
there is blood
.
These sharp movements in the exchange rate caused multi-million dollar losses to large investment funds such as Black Rock and PIMCO.
But behind them came smaller and less well-known funds.
The problem today is that
the gaps between the official exchange rate and parallel dollars are so high
that there is no way to win or even tie - at least in the short or medium term - betting on rates in pesos, that is, renewing at each maturity the investment in Treasury bonds issued in local currency and waiting for a calmer moment to exchange pesos for dollars.
Then, these funds try to get out as it is for the cash with liquid, before the much feared devaluation comes.
It is a
"gate 12"
with a very small exit.
Hence the skyrocketing price of the dollar counted with liquid.
But it is not just "hedge funds".
The latest measures adopted by the Central Bank, restricting access to the official dollar to companies that must pay debts in dollars, also added temperature to the cash with liquid.
Companies have to face their maturities and it could happen that some are forced to buy foreign currency in the CCL, increasing the demand for a supply that does not expand at the same speed.
It must also be said that both the CCL dollar and the Stock market dollar do not have a direct impact on reserves.
They are dollars that are held by private actors and only change hands due to operations between private investors.
In the market they argue that if the Central Bank completely eliminated parking, both for purchase and sale, the market would tend to calm down, because perhaps there are no shortage of sellers tempted by the price that the dollar reached in the market with settlement.
Beyond these speculations, from the official point of view, it is
scandalous
that a handful of hedge funds jeopardize the exchange rate policy that the Government is trying to apply.
As always, it's easy to blame yourself.
Although it is considered a serious error to have enabled the "carry trade" during the government of Cambiemos, what persists in the background is the inability of the government (this and the previous one) to regenerate confidence.
The pandemic, the quarantine and the explosion of the fiscal deficit do not help, obviously.
Statements that suggest that it is not necessary to lower public spending, either.
To affirm that the problem of the dollar is
"sociological",
less.
Look also
The IMF warns that Argentina must apply policies to restore confidence and fiscal consolidation
They will promote a partial exchange split to make it easier for people to sell their dollars on the stock market at $ 143
