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The key question to know what the price of the dollar should be today

2020-10-17T16:40:12.241Z

The need for a plan to put economic activity on track collides with the "patches" generated by the Government to contain exchange pressure with already known recipes.



Daniel Fernandez Canedo

10/17/2020 1:21 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 10/17/2020 1:21 PM

If a politician, businessman or analyst had told the Government what the head of the IMF said in the week, he would have been branded, at least, as a

provocative dismissal

.

With the good tone that characterizes her, Kristalina Georgieva

was remarkably harsh when commenting on the Argentine situation: "It faces

dramatic challenges

. The country is in a deep recession,

social conditions are worsening

, economic imbalances are worsening and the divorce between the official exchange rate and the exchange rate change in the shadows is spreading. "

And, behind the scenes, he asked for a

"comprehensive and credible" plan

.

And did the government not retaliate or insult you?

No, and it is obvious why.

First, because he has to ask him about US $ 42,500 million, and second, because Minister Martín Guzmán, among others, knows that Kristalina is right.

Now a concrete answer would be missing, crystallized in a plan that allows it to change expectations, which are reflected in the soaring of free dollars.

This skyrocketing condenses the climate of mistrust in the markets and the business world, which are obviously the ones with the potential to invest.

Georgieva and the need for a lift that sets the course for economic activity contrasts with the patches that the Government is generating in the attempt to contain the exchange pressure in the heat of the promises of Minister Guzmán and the president himself

Alberto Fernandez

that they don't have a

dollar jump in

mind

.

The Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán.

Photo Germán García Adrasti.

The strategy of the last days to support the sayings of the officials is well known by Argentines:

raising the interest rate

so that banks place their surpluses to 34% per year in seven-day repo in the Central Bank and thus encourage the savers to stay at 34% per year in a fixed term of 30 days.

An annualized rate of 34% may at best tie in with an inflation of 40%, but it will have to do with the expectation of devaluation that dominates the market these days.

One dollar "cash settlement" of $ 168 or one

blue

of $ 178, marking a gap of 130% with respect to the official, once again overturned the version of the Argentine economy ministers (Guzmán was no exception) that the "parallel"

is an "insignificant" market

and that it does not represent anything.

On Friday, the Central Bank aspired to turn around the result of the previous days in which it ended with a negative balance in exchange matters.

The union conflict in the oil sector had been overcome and they were waiting for the dollars due to the resumption of exports.

Alberto Fernández in Vaca Muerta.

It also highlighted the

coup de grace to the quota of US $ 200

where they estimate that this month they pruned the demand for the equivalent of about US $ 400 million.

If before, at the beginning of the month, it sold more than US $ 100 million per day, in this October the stocks released an average of

only US $ 6 million a day

.

With the closing of the tap, the parallel dollar was left without supply and the price spike was predictable.

The question that an experienced consultant asks his clients when they ask him what the current price of the dollar should be is a timely one:

At what price would you sell the dollars you have saved today?

Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF.

Photo Clarín Archive.

To think about it, but in the meantime, it is important to highlight a statement by President Fernández that the possibility of applying a playpen on

dollar deposits in

banks

"never" crossed his mind

.

It is clear that no President of a country in which the laws and the principle of ownership are respected should come out and clarify that he does not plan to keep the savings of the people.

But here it seems necessary.

There is mistrust and

foreign currency deposits are in decline

, but Argentina already has four governments with respect for these placements.

And the financial system has the reserve requirements to return them in full in the event that depositors request them.

Those dollars are there, but confidence falters and in the next few days it will be seen whether or not Kristalina Georgieva's message catches on in the Government.

LGP

Look also

Economy sent a bill to Congress with tax exemptions for those who save and invest in pesos

Despite the swap, this year the national public debt increased by US $ 9,121 million

Source: clarin

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