Which companies would benefit from Biden - and which from Trump

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Gun shop in Colorado (archive image)

Photo: 

EMILY KASK / AFP

If Joe Biden wins the presidential election in America in just over a week, two other winners will already be known: the

- and the

.

 The Democratic presidential candidate and his vice-president, Kamala Harris, have announced that they want to decriminalize marijuana use.

Biden also supports the legalization of cannabis for medical purposes.

The effect on the growth industry should be intoxicating, especially as more and more states are letting go.

The financial analysis firm Morningstar expects the medical market in the US to grow by an average of 15 percent annually, and that for recreational smoking weed by almost 25 percent.

Biden's election victory is likely to have a similar boom effect for the

, albeit for different reasons

.

Whenever the Americans expect gun laws to be tightened, they hoard rifles and pistols.

"I was very good for the arms manufacturers," Barack Obama once described the paradox.

In his aegis, sales in the industry did not fall, but increased.

"Big Oil" is behind Trump

Since Biden overtook incumbent Donald Trump in the polls, a new calculation has been made in American companies and investment banks: Who will benefit if the Democrats win the presidency and possibly even the majority in the House and Senate?

And who will lose?

The answer is sometimes not that simple.

The

pampered

by Trump,

for example, are considered the logical losers of the climate change Biden is aiming for.

The donations for the respective candidates support the theory: While the oil and gas industry flooded the Trump camp with $ 13 million, the challenger only received a trickle of $ 976,000.

Greg Valliere of AGF Investments explains this imbalance with the (de) regulatory policy of the Trump administration, which is "very aggressive towards the oil industry".

"And the industry wants it to stay that way," Valliere said on CNN.

Trump himself recently boasted that he only had to call the Exxon boss once to hand over $ 25 million for his election campaign.

Which Trump says he would never do.

Exxon also hastily denied the purely hypothetical call.

But is there really cause to panic in the pipeline business?

Fund manager Christopher Marangi calculates differently: he predicts the trillion dollar stimulus package planned by the Democrats could revitalize large parts of the economy.

The upswing would fuel the consumption of fossil fuels - and the prices of ExxonMobil & Co ..

In contrast, Trump's courtesy policy in recent years has not prevented investors from turning their back on the oil and coal industry.

The energy industry is sagging deep in the S&P 500 share index.

In turn, every crisis also has profiteers.

The industry giant ConocoPhillips, for example, is taking advantage of the difficult hour to swallow oil shale competitor Concho Resources without any cash.

"The party in government has little influence on the economy and the winners and losers of a recovery," Marangi sums up in an interview with Reuters.

 Biden could push renewable energies

Regardless of this sobering conclusion, the investment community tries to turn the victory or defeat of its political opponents into profits.

The "Nomura-Wolfe Biden Election Basket" investment package, for example, relies on a march through the Democrats - and invests, for example, in pharmaceutical research and American semiconductor production.

Other investment banks have also created baskets of stocks for different scenarios.

Most observers agree that Biden will use the companies and shares of

- not surprising, since the candidate wants to steer the nation into climate neutrality by 2050 and make $ 2 trillion in government money for it.

500,000 charging stations for e-cars are to be set up in America by 2030.

Biden wants to improve energy efficiency in four million commercial buildings and two million houses, including through better-insulated windows.

If there is a large majority for the Democrats, the investment company Pimco expects a "boost" for infrastructure such as bridges and roads, an expansion of the broadband network and investments in climate-friendly schools - good for the

.

The losers include the analysts not only oil and chemicals, but also the

, because Biden wants to force lower drug prices.

On the other hand, the hospitals would benefit from this, according to Pimco.

Other experts are also trying to translate the political plans into price movements.

Biden's idea of ​​a "second great railway revolution" could

prove to be a "blessing"

for the metals

, predicted the investment bank Natixis.

On the winners list of investment expert Ed Yardeni are wind and solar, construction companies, engineering services, but also innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence.

He

sees

one of the losers

, as stricter emissions standards could ruin their profits even further.

Other investment advisors generally believe that so-called ESG funds, which are concerned with environmental, social and responsible corporate governance, receive an additional bid push.

The presidential candidate himself has promised that American industrial companies in particular should benefit from his plans.

Trump is trying, however, to sow doubts.

He knows more about wind energy than Biden, boomed the incumbent in the last TV presidential debate: "It is extremely expensive and kills all the birds."

And not only that: The wind turbines are not manufactured in the USA, but by competitors in Germany and China.

The conclusion of the fact check in the "New York Times" on Trump's claims that evening: "Wrong, at least as far as the birds are concerned."

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