Laura Garcia
10/27/2020 2:48 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 10/27/2020 2:48 PM
Economists ask ... what Guzmán plan?
The intention of the Minister of Economy to
promote the placement of debt as a means of financing the deficit
that gradually displaces the monetary issue is, in principle, celebrated.
It could even ease the gap somewhat in the short term.
But without the framework of a strong fiscal program, they point out, the effort is reduced to part of the strategy of "buying time."
Or the "hang on plan."
There are also somewhat more technical issues that can result in a boomerang.
Banks were "invited" to make their contribution
with two clear measures: the release of part of their holdings of Leliq (Central Bank debt) and a greater regulatory margin to buy Treasury debt.
The problem is that these Leliq represent money that is "sterilized" by the Central Bank.
If they go into debt and the Government uses those funds to pay expenses, they become an injection of pesos that had been withdrawn from the street.
The entity will have to absorb them again because, otherwise, this migration from Leliq to Treasury debt will generate
an expansion that would paradoxically put pressure on the gap.
Fernando Marull, from FMyA, explains it clearly: "What Guzmán is doing now is trying to cover the deficit for the fourth quarter, plus what he has to pay for principal and interest maturities, which are about $ 1.2 trillion. First, he has to secure the so-called roll over (renewal) and then get the net financing. Basically what he seeks is
not to ask the Central Bank for so many pesos. "
"In theory, the government can decompress with this, there are many pesos left over," he adds, "but it is not enough to lower the gap. It can calm it down. It does
not mean that the battle is won
."
"On the other hand, banks now have greater absorption capacity for these new bonds because they released the surplus of Leliq and increased the exposure to public securities to 75% of assets.
This is an expansive measure
but the dynamics will be Leliq's. to debt, from debt to deficit, they spend it and they are going to have to withdraw it. "
Gabriel Caamano, from Consultora Ledesma, affirms: "One thing is to
manage the pressure that is accumulating
and that we see in the gaps and another thing is to deactivate the process."
And he stops: "If what comes in is from the banks, if they are disarming Leliq and passes, in that case it
would be the issuance in another way.
Instead of directly issuing the Central to give to the Treasury, the banks would withdraw pesos from the Central to to lend to the Treasury with which there is equal emission ".
"The issue is the bottom line," he insists, "is that there is no plan, no anchoring of expectations. These measures can at best aspire to handle the pressure a bit in the short term and
to gain time but sometimes not even that
. We saw the last few weeks. Without putting together a well-articulated and well-communicated plan, at most, they will save time. If it is to kick problems forward, it ends up being more expensive, we already know. Now if it is because you are going to try an orderly correction it is different but we don't know it and from what it seems that the times with the Fund will be,
the plan to endure is many months
".
Martín Vauthier, director of Eco Go, indicates that "in principle the idea of financing a larger portion of the deficit via debt in pesos and a smaller portion with issuance is a more transparent mechanism, but
what is relevant is to give a signal regarding the deficit
, a strong fiscal signal. Because if Leliq or passes are disarmed to finance the deficit, they are pesos that the Government ultimately ends up spending and, if they were stationed at the Central Bank, ended up on the street,
eventually pressing on the gap or on reserves or inflation".
And he emphasizes: "If these tenders are part of a comprehensive program that manages to impact expectations,
there is a greater chance that this idea will work as a bridge
while progressing with a more solid fiscal program and in negotiations with the IMF and exporters to reinforce reserves ".
Leonardo Chialva, from Delphos Investment, believes that "the plan can work if and only if they also send a clear fiscal signal. The level of short-term debt is very low after the restructuring and good management of the debt in pesos, but that will soon find a limit as well. So
the plan is going in the right direction from the technical point of view to buy time
in a global context that is starting to get nice (US $ 400 soybeans), but politicians will have to put their own providing some
fiscal discipline
. Without that, there are no technicalities that will work in the medium term. "
NE
Look also
In four years, the blue dollar ate the southern whale
The blue dollar falls to $ 182, in anticipation of the issuance of bonds tied to the currency
