Icon: enlarge
Restaurant in Frankfurt am Main: hard times for gastronomy
Photo:
Boris Roessler / dpa
The newly announced shutdown for public life in Germany threatens to turn into a kind of premature hibernation for the German economy.
Small businesses and restaurateurs in particular see their existence threatened by the recent contact restrictions and opening bans.
You can find an overview of the new rules here: These restrictions apply from Monday
But the new measures are also likely to be a severe setback for the economy as a whole, which has just started to recover.
The federal government has announced that it will generously compensate affected companies.
But whether that will be enough is unclear.
The economist Jens Südekum welcomes the new resolutions in principle, but also sees mistakes in politics.
"Next time we have to have a better basis for making decisions in order to increase acceptance among the population," he says in an interview.
SPIEGEL:
Mr. Südekum, Germany has to go back to the shutdown.
How do you rate the policy measures for the economy?
Südekum:
There was no getting around what politicians have now decided because the dynamics of the infections were clear.
The economic message of the first wave was: We have to keep the virus under control.
From this point of view, a mini lockdown is a better option than waiting for the death toll to rise and panic to spread.
We have seen that countries that have taken the virus lightly are doing worse both in terms of death rates and economically.
You only have to look to Great Britain or Sweden.
These are not role models for us.
SPIEGEL:
Politicians want to compensate the catering industry for up to 75 percent of its lost sales.
Do you think that's right?
Südekum:
That is inevitable when doing such a mini-lockdown.
There are now many restaurants that are actually big enough, have good hygiene concepts and that have to close anyway.
They are of course entitled to compensation.
SPIEGEL:
If there is now a general closure where the number of infections is low, it will be tough for those affected.
Südekum:
Right, and that's why the state has to reimburse at a flat rate.
Incidentally, he does this very generously and replaces 75 percent of what those affected by the lockdown took in pre-pandemic November 2019.
Some of them are now probably getting more than they would have earned without mini lockdown.
It is also good that some should be compensated that were forgotten in the first round, for example artists or cultural initiatives.
SPIEGEL:
Is the reimbursement of defaults a gateway for fraud?
The gastronomy in particular is not known as the most tax-honest industry.
Südekum:
Of course you can always use tricks, but the tax offices already have the tax data from November 2019.
In this respect, there is not so much that can be cheated.
SPIEGEL:
What does the shutdown mean for the economy as a whole?
Do economists have to revise their expectations for the fourth quarter and the full year 2020 downwards?
Südekum:
That will be the case.
A quick, V-shaped rebound is a thing of the past, but I don't think the fourth quarter will be as bad as the second.
Finally, the wholesale and retail sectors remain open.
Above all, however, the economy slumped globally in the second quarter, but now things are running normally in China.
And that is crucial for the industry.
In contrast to March, for example, the auto industry is not lacking any delivery parts.
I think we're more likely to see a "crooked W" now, i.e. a W in which the second downward leg is shorter than the first.
"Now it's also about saving the Christmas business"
SPIEGEL:
Doesn't that mean the German economy's dependence on China increases?
Südekum:
Yes, but we can be happy that China functions as a sales market at all.
But one thing is clear: China is getting stronger, the USA is losing importance.
SPIEGEL:
Some of our neighbors in Europe are taking tougher measures, and the number of infections is rising disproportionately, especially in Eastern Europe.
How much does this affect Germany as an export nation?
Südekum:
That is one of the big problems, because of course we do a lot more trade with our European neighbors than with China.
If the economy stays down there for a long time, it will hit us too.
SPIEGEL:
Isn't it strange in this context that the EU member states are delaying their applications for projects that are to be financed by the € 750 billion reconstruction fund?
Südekum:
Brussels would just have to say what exactly should be funded, because I am not sure what the money from the fund can actually be spent on.
However, the fund is not an insurance against short-term economic damage either, but the equivalent of the federal government's "boom" package.
So it's supposed to get the economy going again.
But in the very short term we don't need a classic economic program anyway.
People should stay at home for now.
We can't tell them at the same time to go shopping and spend some money.
We can't talk about that until next year.
SPIEGEL:
What does it mean for the banks when many small businesses have to close for four weeks and there is a risk of even more loan defaults, even if the state partially compensates for it?
Südekum:
The current lockdown decision has not increased the risk of insolvency because the compensation payments are so generous.
That is also good for the banks.
SPIEGEL:
The Council of the European Central Bank meets this Thursday.
Can it still help the European economy?
Südekum:
The ECB should extend its bond purchase program that it launched because of Corona.
It must ensure that the capital market remains receptive to the member states' new debts.
This is especially true for countries like Spain and Italy, which already have high national debts and are very badly affected by the pandemic.
This is less important for Germany.
Whether we are going to incur new debts of 95 billion euros next year or 130 billion, as they are now being discussed: Germany will easily find buyers for its bonds outside of the ECB as well.
SPIEGEL:
Do we all have to get used to limited-time partial lockdowns in the economy?
Südekum:
I'm afraid so, and that is exactly a problem.
SPIEGEL:
What do you mean by that?
Südekum:
Now it's also about saving the Christmas business.
But what do we do if the number of infections rises again in January or February?
SPIEGEL:
Then there will probably be the next mini shutdown.
Südekum:
Yes, because we just don't know where people got infected.
That's why it was a blind flight decision on Wednesday.
Next time we have to have a better basis for making decisions in order to increase acceptance among the population.
So hotels are only closed if there is evidence that hotels are actually a problem.
That's why it's so important to test and track more.
It is a good thing that we have ten million rapid tests for nursing staff and other systemically important areas ...
SPIEGEL:
... but?
Südekum:
If we had 100 million, then maybe we could say that we are also keeping the hotels open to people with a negative test.
We need to increase the number of rapid tests and improve the tests.
And, as with masks, the state should give the industry a purchase guarantee.
Because once there is a vaccine, the rapid tests are quickly worthless.
That is why they are now being produced too little.
Of course, such guarantees cost a lot of money.
But much less than a third or fourth lockdown.
Icon: The mirror