Renewables smile with Biden one step away from the White House

Biden, during a recent visit to a solar facility in Plymouth, New Hampshire. Brian Snyder / Reuters

The beginning and end of Donald Trump's presidency will surely be the two greatest turning points in modern-day American politics.

His arrival at the White House supposed an amendment to the totality on the economic course in the time of Barack Obama: the unilateralism imposed its law;

free trade gave way to tariffs;

tax cuts for the richest came after a few years of greater fiscal progressivity;

and coal and crude oil regained official favor to the detriment of renewables.

His very likely departure will turn the clock back again: Obama's vice president and right-hand man, Joe Biden, returns with command in place, and some sectors, such as clean energy, are preparing for four years of frenzied activity.

"The infrastructure sector, including renewables, would benefit directly from a Biden victory," emphasized on the same election day, when everything was still up in the air, Julius Baer's head of global strategy, Patrik Lang.

On the other hand, oil, gas and pharmaceutical companies "will feel greater pressure from the regulation side."

In addition, unlike other sectors that would benefit from a Democratic victory - the consumer sector, for example, which depends largely on the stimulus plans approved by the new government and the new Congress - renewables do not depend so much on In which hands the Senate remains: Here, the push from Biden seems essential, although if it is confirmed that the upper house remains dominated by the conservatives, it could torpedo some vital reforms in the fight against climate change.

The main US companies linked to renewables are already anticipating their rosy projections in the Biden era in their prices.

The solar panel manufacturer FirstSolar broke its all-time high on the stock market two weeks ago, when all the polls were already pointing to the victory of Biden, and, after a few days of doubts, this Friday it resumed the upward path.

The hydrogen cell company Plug Power, also at historical highs, has multiplied its market value by six since the beginning of the year, and Sunpower, specialized in solar solutions for homes, has multiplied its value by five in the last semester.

In the wake of the news coming from the shortlist of key states still in dispute (Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona), US power companies highly focused on renewables, such as NextEra Energy - which is already worth more than many oil giants - also these days beat historical record capitalization.

The joy has spread beyond the US borders: in Europe, the Danish manufacturer of wind turbines Vestas is riding towards a new all-time high and the Spanish -although a German subsidiary- Siemens Gamesa, despite the slippage on Friday, has already far exceeded the scare Wednesday, when the first counts pointed to a greater strength of Trump than anticipated.

The explanation is clear: in the US, both the solar and wind industries are highly dependent on imported components.

According to the latest figures compiled by Reuters, 84% of the photovoltaic installations installed last year came from abroad, a figure that ranges between 30% and 50% in the case of windmills.

In Spain, Iberdrola also smiles at the more than likely victory of the democrat.

After redoubling its commitment to the North American country, with a not inconsiderable outlay (almost 3,700 million euros) for the power company PNM Resources, whose activity rests on two key states for the advancement of solar in the United States: New Mexico and Texas.

And the arrival in the White House of a fervent defender of clean energy more than justifies the premium paid for his new subsidiary, which some analysts saw too high.

A green energy “revolution”

On the campaign trail, Biden repeatedly promised a veritable "clean energy revolution that will bring millions of middle-class jobs."

To do this, the still Democratic candidate has unveiled a powerful push — two trillion dollars only in his first term, which is soon to be said: far more than the current Spanish GDP — in clean energy sources.

Solar will take the cake, with a commitment to install 500 million new panels, and wind will lag behind, with 60,000 turbines.

In his “transition to leave behind oil” —the words he himself has used to refer to his project— batteries to store surplus generation will play a central role, as will incentives to speed up car traffic. from combustion to electricity and to improve the energy efficiency of homes.

The ultimate goal: for the US electricity sector to be carbon neutral by 2035 and for the nation's net emissions to reach zero by 2050. It is about, as the Democratic candidate's website reads, “not just reversing the damage done by Trump, but to go further.

And do it fast ”.

"His presidency will create opportunities for this sector, while another Trump term would have maintained support for the current energy regime," completes Mona Mahajan, US investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors.

The roadmap of Biden and Trump, in effect, is water and oil: the Republican is a staunch defender of the trilogy of fossil energies (oil, gas, coal), which still account for 80% of a parent company, the United States, in which the weight of renewables is still residual.

And his victory would not only have improved the tax incentives to invest in traditional - dirty - sources, but would have prolonged his support for

, a highly disputed technique in the environment, but thanks to which the US has achieved energy sovereignty and that has taken the North American country to the first position in the global table of oil producers.

The preference of Trump - the president who took his country out of the Paris agreement - for coal and crude oil has lengthened their useful life in some facilities, favored their extraction with environmentally aggressive techniques and slowed, in a certain way, the advance of the renewable.

This stick in the wheel, however, has not prevented their flourishing in large areas of the country: after years of uninterrupted technological advances, they are not only cleaner but also much more profitable.

"It is the cheapest source of electricity in history," the International Energy Agency recently recalled.

But if, as is presumed, Biden wins, an additional push from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue will be a huge boost for a sector that had become used — by force — to receiving virtually no sustenance from Washington.

Like so many other things, that will change from January.