German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier this Wednesday before the presentation of his department's annual economic report.ODD ANDERSEN / AFP
Germany's second lockdown is affecting its economy much more than the government predicted last fall.
The Minister of Economy, Peter Altmaier, announced on Wednesday that the forecast for growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) is 3% for 2021, compared to 4.4% that was calculated a few months ago.
The fault is the almost total closure of public life that was decreed in Germany in early November to face the second wave of the coronavirus.
The hotel industry, the leisure sector, culture and sports closed then.
In December all non-essential trade was added.
Chancellor Angela Merkel and the leaders of the Länder have agreed to extend the restrictions until at least 14 February.
Altmaier described a dual image of the German economy: "While the industry remains strong, the service sector has been greatly affected," he said at a press conference to present his department's annual report.
The pandemic caused a 5% drop in GDP in 2020, which Altmaier described as "dramatic".
This is the biggest setback since the crisis of 2008 and 2009.
But the minister wanted to offer a more promising image for the immediate future: "We are seeing that the daily number of infections stabilizes, and that is encouraging," he said, but immediately warned that the situation is complicated by the danger they pose. the newer, more contagious variants of the virus.
Altmaier is not in favor of easing containment measures, something that more and more voices are demanding for the sake of economic recovery.
"We must not waste what we have achieved so far," he said.
"There will be economic reactivation in 2021, but it will have less momentum," Altmaier assumed during the presentation of the report, which predicts that the economy will not regain its strength prior to the coronavirus crisis until mid-2022. In October the Executive was confident of returning to the previous situation in late 2021 or early 2022. The new growth forecast is below the one calculated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 3.5% in 2021.
German growth will be driven almost exclusively, according to government forecasts, by domestic demand, while the foreign sector will account for only one tenth of a percentage of GDP.
Exports will grow 6.4% and imports 7.2%, according to the report, approved by the Council of Ministers.
"Employment is expected to stagnate in 2021," adds the work, which recognizes that "economic development will continue to be highly influenced by the course of the pandemic and containment measures."
The Executive highlights that economic aid in 2020 "secured millions of jobs and companies received vital liquidity."
The economic recovery process is slower than expected, one year after the start of the pandemic in Germany.
This is stated in a survey of more than 10,000 companies published by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK, in its German acronym) a few days ago.
Also, the IFO index, which measures business confidence in Germany, showed a significant drop on Monday, the largest in the last six months.
Companies believe that their current situation is worse than last month and their expectations are also more pessimistic due to the length of the second wave, which in some way has brought the German economy to a standstill, notes the IFO institute.
Only the confidence of the industrial sector and export companies has improved.
