While companies are striving to incorporate the innovations of artificial intelligence into their work systems, which is called to automate a large number of tasks that are currently performed by humans, analyses are proliferating on what its impact on the world of work will end up being. The weak point of the predictions is the early stage in which AI is still located, but if they are not too far off the mark, the way companies are organized will be reversed. The latest to warn of this budding revolution has been the International Monetary Fund: it estimates that in advanced economies around 60% of jobs are exposed to some degree of AI-related risks, a percentage that drops to 40% in the case of emerging economies and only 26% in low-income countries. "less prepared" to take advantage of its advantages, according to the IMF.
The study raises a key dilemma: will AI be a complementary technology that will facilitate the work of highly qualified employees or has it come to replace them and leave them without jobs and pay? The answer is not black and white: approximately half of workers "may be negatively affected", while the rest would improve their productivity, by having tools that would facilitate their work, but without replacing them. That is, the best-trained employees, who in other evolutions had remained necessary—the Luddites who smashed the machines that threatened their jobs in the Industrial Revolution during the nineteenth century were blue-collar workers—are now not fully protected by their skills. "Unlike previous waves of automation, which had their greatest impact on middle-skilled workers, the risks of AI displacement extend to those on higher wages," the IMF notes.
Those who earn the most are vulnerable, but those who ride the wave instead of being submerged in it, will come out stronger. "The benefits of AI will likely fall disproportionately on people with higher incomes, especially in countries such as India and, to a lesser extent, the United States, where complementarity is steadily increasing in the higher-paid segment."
No one seems to be entirely safe from becoming an accessory. Although that, paradoxically, will be positive for the world economy if you look at the big numbers. "We are on the verge of a technological revolution that could boost productivity, promote global growth and increase revenues around the world," said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the bank. There is, however, a dark side. "It could replace jobs and deepen inequality," warns the Bulgarian leader.
That workers in less developed countries may continue to be needed for longer may be good news for them in the short term, but not for their economies, which may be left behind. "Many of these countries do not have the infrastructure or skilled workforce to reap the benefits of AI, raising the risk that over time the technology could worsen inequality between nations," the report states.
Different strategies
How should the State act in the face of this phenomenon? The response, according to the IMF, must be adapted to the circumstances. While the most advanced and the most developed emerging economies need to focus on better regulation – something the EU has pioneered – reallocating the workforce to be replaced by machines, and protecting those who are laid off and thus lose their source of income, emerging and developing markets must focus on building their own digital infrastructure and training people who can use it to shorten the economy. digital divide and contain the loss of income due to lower productivity.
"In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality," Georgieva acknowledges. In his view, it will be necessary to formulate policies to maintain social peace. "It is crucial that countries establish comprehensive social safety nets and offer retraining programs for vulnerable workers."
An avalanche of forecasts is taking centre stage in these early stages of the arrival of the most advanced artificial intelligences. Earlier this year, the OECD published that threatened jobs account for 27% of the workforce in its member countries. And the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs estimated that 300 million jobs will disappear totally or partially due to the irruption of AI. The jobs affected are very varied, from bank employees, stock market traders (replaced by algorithms), multiple office jobs, medical staff (AI can help diagnose cancer and health problems), as well as others for whom higher education is not essential, such as customer service (replaced by chatbots) or drivers (if the autonomous car becomes widespread).
At the moment, the use of the conditional surrounds every prediction of the experts, even in the case of those of the IMF. When assessing the impact by age group, he highlights that young people are more familiar with the use of technologies, which could help them to handle AI more fluently, but at the same time warns that the demand for young people with higher education could decrease if their profiles become expendable.
In its pages, too, there is an ideal scenario in which the benefits would outweigh their harms. "If productivity gains are large enough, income levels could rise for most workers." Leisure time could also grow. Artificial intelligence has resurrected the old aspiration to continue reducing the working day. The question is whether this new era of leisure reign in which machines do the work instead of humans without sweat, schedules, or complaints, can be so prosperous as to give enough back to the losers of change.
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