In an Argentina that, except in a few sectors, suffered
a progressive insignificance in terms of investments,
the question for companies that are here to stay, and also for funds always ready to leave, is whether the country
will be able to seduce dollars from the mattress anymore. the foreigners
.
In Davos they listened to the team led by Javier Milei.
The Government's plan attracted attention.
But some believe that
they are proposals destined to fall into a void.
“There are too many dinosaurs and they don't go extinct easily,” a member of the delegation in the Swiss Alpine village reportedly justified.
“Argentina has to
normalize quickly to return to the markets
at the end of the year.
“We have to climb Everest and they are at base camp,” the head of a fund slipped.
YPF has already taken a step by being the first to leave after three years: it reaped US$ 800 million with a guaranteed ON on its exports.
Alejandro Elsztain, from Cresud, a leader in agriculture,
celebrated the 9,000 offers for his ON with a rate of 6% in dollars.
“Milei has a clear direction and
is not going to give up
,” said a banker according to the comments of his bosses in Davos.
Thomas Jordan, president of the Union of Swiss Banks and Luis Caputo
Although in this environment the focus is on controlling
inflation
to avoid another devaluation in March, before the arrival of soybean dollars.
“Everyone wants to come to Argentina, but
the absence of legal security and a labor system that overprotects
the white wage earner in a country with 6 million black jobs and in which there is no willingness to talk about the subject immediately jumps out,” he confesses. Adrián Werthein, from the business group that bears his last name.
Darío, Adrián and Daniel Werthein.
The banks have already resigned themselves to
entering into the debt exchange in pesos
after the liquefaction of the Leliq implemented by Luis Caputo.
There are US$64 billion of a liability that is adjusted for inflation that would be ordered with new bonds for 2025, 2026 and 2027.
Gustavo Neffa observes other maturities such as the
US$ 9,000 million of capital with private bondholders in 2025
of that debt that Martín Guzmán rescheduled.
It seems that with the dollars from the countryside and energy, money laundering and some investment is not enough.
“The market talks about delivery, about delivering facts, results,” says the partner of the former Milei reference, Darío Epstein.
There are others waiting for delivery.
One case is that of Transelectric with the qualification to enter
the United States with electrical power transformers
.
Javier Tizado's firm signed up for the opportunity that Washington opened by preventing the entry of Chinese products and looking for suppliers from nearby countries that are not at war.
He ships for US$124 million to Enel, Iberdrola, to Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway holding company.
Javier Tizado
“I observe a bias that leaves
industrial activity in a sort of oblivion
,” says Tizado, arguing that their exports do not withstand the combination of 15% withholdings and 17.5% PAIS tax for imported inputs.
It doesn't seem like a sector to disdain.
The participation of the manufacturing industry in the
GDP is 20% and in 2023 they exported US$ 20.6 billion.
Tizado maintains that the export dollar that combines the liquidation of 80% by the official and 20% by cash with liquid from which the 15% withholding is deducted is $ 771. The import dollar, which is the most official The PAIS tax of 17.5%, to which is added a cataract of taxes that are not recovered, reaches $1,250.
The gap is high.
The industrialists of Córdoba let
Domingo Cavallo know
that he has his sword, Joaquín Cottani, as vice president of Economy.
He revealed that Cavallo considers it a mistake.
Of course, the people of Córdoba
launched a lawsuit to demand the labor reform contained in the DNU before the courts.
And the UIA followed in their footsteps.
Meanwhile, there are works that are being delayed, such as the reversal of the Northern gas pipeline which, with Bolivia running out of gas, puts several provinces at risk.
Despite the financing granted by the CAF, Argentina must disburse US$ 100 million and
as we know, there is no money, but there are talks with Bolivia to expand the supply.
The Minister of Infrastructure Guillermo Ferraro, who comes from KPMG and had Corporación América as
clients from Gezhouba,
the Chinese part of the Santa Cruz dams, is required by the privatizations in the pipeline.
The Minister of Infrastructure, Guillermo Ferraro, during the plenary session in Deputies.
In the Charterhouse of Parma, Stendhal mentions that kind of talent for public affairs of slow and complicated administration.
And it's going to take a lot of that.
For AySA, they think of a model in which the works to provide, maintain and improve the service remain
outside the company and that the operation goes into private hands.
At Airlines, which in the official view competes well in domestic and international flights, the problem is its fixed expenses of almost US$ 1,000 million annually.
“
Even if you double your billing, it doesn't arrive.
This year the deficit will be US$500 million
,” they risk.
An emergency is the
key Waterway in the output of the harvest
.
Another, the port of Buenos Aires, which requires urgent dredging and in what is a metaphor of the country tied with wire, if the dredging is done the pier falls.
In this scenario, Werthein admits his doubts about the DNU and the Omnibus Law.
“There is a need for
convergence with the political class, with those that Milei criticized in his
From Him campaign.
We will have to give in but the danger is that the reforms will end up being distorted.
“Parliament must give signals.”
It will?
The former president of the Audit, Jesús Rodríguez, recalled the Nobel Prize winner Thomas Sargent, famous for his contributions to the theory of rational expectations:
“The viability of any economic plan is defined by political sustainability.”
The opposition points out that it cannot be accepted that the “adjustment of retirees is at the will of the Prince.”
But what there is agreement is in the
liquidation of the ANSeS Sustainability Guarantee Fund,
especially with regard to State shares in companies, of US$ 5,678 million, 17.4% of the total.
“It makes sense if it is a capitalization system, not a pay-as-you-go system,” they maintained.
Jesus Rodriguez
Meanwhile, banks are waiting for samples of the new $10,000 and $20,000 bills to arrive so that multiple systems can recognize them before they hit the streets in June.
The entities have multiplied their cement and steel vaults to store banknotes due to Central regulations and believe they will be able to lower those costs.
Instead of Leliq they now have passes from the Central that allows them to maintain a rate for savers that, otherwise,
would fall much more
.
Of course, they are locked in a
fight with Mercado Pago
.
Curious, they argue that Marcos Galperin's firm competes unfairly with them, given that the fintech does not pay some taxes such as extra Earnings advances
"because it is protected in the Knowledge Economy law."
In all this, there are tremors in the activity.
This January, supermarkets and shopping centers accompany
the 20% drop in gasoline prices.
JP Morgan, which is usually right, projects inflation of 4% for only in December.
Will it help lower prices?
The bad news is that the fall in GDP would be 3.3%
.