Although March is a seasonally high month in terms of inflation, this year, the forecasts of private consultants speak of a behavior similar to that of February in the evolution of the retail price index
and even lower: they project an increase in a range of 10, 5% to 13%.
While the Government is much more optimistic and assures that the figure is already reaching
a single digit.
To a large extent, the containment of inflation this month is due to a
slowdown in the pace of increases in food
, an item that weighs practically 25% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In addition, the "recession" effect that covers almost all areas.
Specifically regarding
food
, the survey by the
LCG
consulting firm showed an
average increase of 10.2%
in the last 4 weeks and 8.6% end to end in the same period.
Meanwhile, according to
Eco Go
, inflation in
food consumed within the home would amount to 11.4%
in March, taking into account the measurement until the third week of the month and considering a projected increase of 3% for the last week. The increases recorded in food consumed outside the home would reach 11.2%.
Thus, the consulting firm projects
a general level of increase for March of 13.1%,
confirmed
Rocío Bisang
, economist at Eco Go and clarified that “the reduction in this number compared to the previous week responds, mainly, to
lower food inflation. ".
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Inflation in the last year
In percentage
Source:
INDEC
Infographic:
Clarín
For the
Libertad & Progreso Foundation
, the inflation increase in March was
10.6%,
slowing down 2.6 percentage points compared to the official measurement in February (13.2%). In this way, in the first quarter of the year the CPI would accumulate a rise of 51.1% and
the interannual variation 286.4%.
According to this analysis, the first week of March presented an increase of 5.2% due
to the increase in regulated prices
. “In particular, there were increases in
electricity rates and the update of
school fees
was felt
. In the second week, it slowed to 1.6% and in the third a minimum of 0.8% was reached,
the lowest measurement since October
. Finally, the last week of the month it accelerated to 1.4%,” the institution noted. And he added that, in this way, the March CPI
leaves a drag of 1.8 percentage points for April,
about 1.2 points less than in February.
According to economist
Lautaro Moschet
, from that foundation, “the good news is that despite the seasonality that this month presents, the index slowed down again. This ensures that inflation will continue to fall in the coming months. Reinforcing this position,
the third week of the month presented an increase of less than 1%, something we had not seen since October of last year.
But this was not an isolated fact, but when comparing each of the weeks of March with the analogous one of the previous month, the decline continues to appear,” he commented.
From the
CEPA
, economist
Hernán Lechter
estimates
an increase of 11.9% for the March price index.
Far from being optimistic like other market analysts, he explains that
behind the data "there is a very large recession with a fixed exchange rate and a downward parallel dollar
. "
"So it's not a small thing," he said.
This recession is framed by a strong initial rise in the exchange rate last December and the consequent higher inflation in the following months. In addition, the removal of subsidies from rates and the honesty of many depressed prices reduced salaries by 20% and pensions by 30% from November to now, thereby aggravating economic activity's decline.
For its part, the consulting firm
ACM
warned about the impact of seasonality on the inflation numbers that the INDEC will report on April 12: "In March it is expected that the deceleration registered (in February) will lose inertia due to the expected increases in the matter. of regulated prices, mainly in Education - one of the most backward price segments that has not yet registered significant increases -,
prepaid, rates and fuels
to mention a few.
"Additionally, relative
lags
still persist between the different divisions that make up the CPI and general inflation," it noted in its latest report.
NE