One of the characteristics that the Minister of Economy is recognized for is his ability to anticipate events that emerge as inevitable.
Both
Luis Caputo
and President
Javier Milei
clearly know that, if they continue with the current exchange rate policy marked by an increase in the cost of living of around 10/11% per month and an official dollar rising to 2%, the path to a situation of exchange rate delay will be consolidated.
President Milei has already
said that he will not devalue
and that the situation of the quiet dollar is now different because the Government shows a fiscal surplus and because the "no money" policy is clearly verified in the shortage of pesos in a recessive economy that is showing falls very strong in the level of consumption.
But the calculations on the dynamics towards a
situation of exchange delay around the middle of the year
are consolidated as the weeks go by and financial operators begin to rehearse possible scenarios.
To set the framework, the consulting firm 1816 calculated that the real exchange rate
"has been appreciating and the $800 in December today would be $1,480", well above the $1,062 of the cash with settlement and the $1,015 of the blue dollar.
Of course, for exporters the data is more than relevant, at the same time it explains the strong swing in prices compared in dollars from December to these days.
The most resonant example is that of the senators, who from earning $1.9 million gross go on to collect $4.5 million in hand, an increase that in blue dollars implies going
from US$1,900 to US$4,500
as a conjunction of an important jump of the diet and the slowdown of the dollar.
The President, in addition to ensuring that he will not devalue, maintained that the release of the exchange rate (limits to pay for imports, transfer dividends or to buy more than US$ 200 monthly at the official price)
would be immediate if he had the additional US$ 15,000 million
that he seeks. get the Government since he took office.
In the week Caputo was in Washington with the Monetary Fund and beyond the emphatic praise of the head of the organization
Kristalina Georgieva
for the drop in inflation and the fiscal surplus, her deputy,
Gita Gopinath
, made it clear that
it is not yet planned an additional loan
for Argentina.
In this framework, without devaluation or additional funds, market operators wonder what could be the
incentive
, at the threshold of the liquidation of the soybean and corn campaign,
so that producers feel tempted to quickly liquidate
the harvest and the exporters the dollars.
A speculation that has gained ground in recent days coincides, in part, with the proposal of former minister
Domingo Cavallo
and is to double the market,
leaving the official dollar growing at 2% monthly and completely releasing cash with settlement.
In this way, the government would maintain the "blend" for exporters (they settle 80% with the official dollar and 20% with the CCL) before fulfilling the commitment it made with the IMF to eliminate it in the middle of the year.
In this scheme, for example, the analysts of 1816 imagine that "the first thing will be to remove the rule of the National Securities Commission, of $200 million."
This possibility is associated with a key result that the Government obtains these days: the
Central Bank's net reserves would leave the negative field.
A detailed work by the Capital Foundation shows that the net reserves that on December 10 were negative at US$ 11,180 million, on April 16 stood at -US$ 1,150 million, which
brought the total reserve liquidity, according to the consulting firm , to US$ 9,738 million, a figure unthinkable before the end of 2023
.
An idea that lurks in the market is that, once the Central Bank announces that net foreign exchange reserves move into the positive field,
another time
will begin to foresee a path towards exchange rate liberation.