Confindustria Vicenza has lit a beacon on the prospects of world markets and on the factors that - between the war of tariffs and geopolitical tensions - can affect global trade in 2020. What is the role that Italy can play in this scenario? The answer in the conference held at Palazzo Bonin Longare, headquarters of Confindustria Vicenza, and organized in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo. "The economy and world markets in 2020. What prospects" was the title of the meeting which saw as guest of honor Professor Carlo Cottarelli, director of the Observatory on Italian Public Accounts of the Catholic University of Milan, which beyond With a long and qualified experience at the International Monetary Fund, he held important institutional positions, including that of extraordinary commissioner to the spending review for the Government chaired by Enrico Letta and then appointed by the Presidency of the Council of Ministers as Executive Director on the IMF Board.
"I am moderately optimistic about the global economy - explained Cottarelli, fresh from a stay in the United States - last year it was thought that there could be a global recession or at least a sharp slowdown. Instead, the news related to the second half of 2019 they show more or less a substantial balance. We are not expecting anything particularly good from 2020, however it would seem that things are stabilizing in Europe as well. It is true that in the Old Continent we are not growing much, but it is still a growth that is averting the danger of recession ".
"We hope that there will be no recovery on the duty war - added Professor Cottarelli - it is an aspect to which Italy looks with particular attention, because we are a country that exports a lot and therefore a problem related to duties can become dangerous. Then there are the possible geopolitical problems to consider, the hope is that these scenarios do not condition the economy too much, there is always the imponderable, because just over ten years ago no one would have expected the Lehman Brothers crisis. The important thing is to have an economy resistant to surprises, the thing that worries me most is that the Italian economy can be affected by these possible surprises ".
The numbers were provided by Gregorio De Felice, Chief Economist and Head of the Studies and Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo. "In 2020 in Italy we will still have modest growth, with a slight acceleration of GDP from 0.2% in 2019 to 0.3%, thanks to the resilience of consumption, a good dynamics of disposable income and the growing trade balance. Unfortunately, the investment gap is still large compared to the other main countries in the euro area. A positive figure regards the state of health of our companies: those that have overcome the crisis today are more resilient, with a higher average ROI in each size class and can count on more resources to invest. "
Remo Pedon, vice-president of Confindustria Vicenza and with responsibility for foreign markets, opened the works in the capacity of landlord. "2019 - he explained in his speech - basically ended with not really exciting signs, for world trade, which grew less than world GDP, for the fourth consecutive year. We are perhaps faced with substantial changes in the internationalization models of companies but we are also experiencing a period of profound uncertainties. The trade wars that have the USA and China as protagonists, the Brexit, the car crisis, but even more so the many and worrying signs of geopolitical crisis, Iran, Libya, Hong Kong , just to mention what is happening in these days, they are certainly inducing companies to behave with great prudence and which fatally affect the volume of investments and the dynamics of the world economy ".
In collaboration with:
Vicenza Confindustria