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Coronavirus: the peak of the epidemic predicted “around April 6” in Ile-de-France

2020-04-02T19:42:33.422Z


According to a document from the AP-HP that we were able to consult, the peak of the epidemic is approaching in the Paris region. A relief while the sa


1696 deaths on March 26, 2606 on 29, 3523 on 31, 4503 on April 2. Every evening, on TV, the director general of health speaks, shouting the dark figures of the victims of the Covid-19. Each evening, Jérôme Salomon announces the toll of the surge, more and more contaminations and deaths. When will they stop flying away? In Ile-de-France, in the region most affected by the coronavirus, the date of the peak of the epidemic, so hoped for, is being defined.

It's good news ? According to a document from the Public Assistance of Paris Hospitals (AP-HP) grouping 39 hospitals, dating from March 31 and which we consulted, the peak is expected "around April 6". "This is good news, we are all looking forward to the end of the week," reacts Jean-Paul Mira, head of the intensive care unit at Cochin hospital in Paris. This means that it is the summit. From there, the numbers will stop climbing. "

This course is all the more expected as the resuscitation services of Ile-de-France are saturated. Hundreds of additional beds have, however, been opened, increasing capacities from 1,200 to more than 2,700. But already this Thursday, the only patients of Covid-19 occupied 2,327. "Since the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, we have end of our capacities for hospitalization in intensive care, explains the Ile-de-France regional health agency. It becomes difficult to cope with a daily influx of such magnitude. "

"We expect a plateau of several days

Will the need for resuscitation beds decrease? Not immediately. The number of people admitted to these services will stop increasing and then stabilize. “It will not be an inverted V with an ascent and a descent but rather a U, schematizes Jean-Paul Mira. There will be a break in the curve but behind, we expect a plateau of several days. "

According to AP-HP forecasts, two scenarios are emerging: the figures may be stable for five days, approximately until April 11, or ten days according to a second, more pessimistic option. If the latter is confirmed, they will not really start to fall until April 16.

"I am afraid it is a long plateau, this is what is happening in Italy and our figures follow the same curve ten days apart", exclaims Professor Eric Caumes, head of the disease department infectious at the Pitié-Salpêtrière in Paris, clarifying that it is not, according to him, "a real peak".

Test, trace, isolate and quarantine

Will containment suffice? No because according to Eric Caumes, it is not respected in the same way everywhere in Ile-de-France. "I think it is better followed in Paris than in the suburbs, where it is difficult in some places to be locked up in five in a two-room apartment or to avoid gatherings at the bottom of the buildings". According to the professor, confinement will exacerbate the "social divide" between those who can stay at home and those who cannot.

"Besides, we can already see it in intensive care where there are more more precarious populations". The real effects will be studied next week by the regional health agency of the department: "This third week will ensure surveillance: how many people call their doctor, how many do tests, how many arrive at the hospital and how many are hospitalized in intensive care. "

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The expectations are very high: "If the confinement does not bear fruit quickly, if the number of new serious cases does not slow down, we are facing major difficulties. »Let's anticipate, says Eric Caumes, for whom it is necessary to use, in addition to another strategy, that of prevention. “To break the epidemic, it is necessary to test all the people gathered in the same place: the Ehpad, the medico-social establishments, the prisons and especially the hospitals. The professor puts forward four words: test, trace, isolate and quarantine.

A regression in the Grand-Est?

Has the peak already been reached in the Grand-Est? It is early to decide. But across the region, doctors are starting to see a decline in activity related to the coronavirus. "I weigh my words because we must not arouse false hopes," immediately warns Marc Noizet, head of emergency at the Mulhouse hospital. But for the past five days, the number of calls to Samu has been falling. Same observation for the number of people who present to the emergency room in connection with coronavirus. There are also fewer serious patients arriving in intensive care and there are more discharges than hospital admissions ”.

Is it the consequence of confinement? "This trend is difficult to interpret compared to China and Italy or fifteen days after confinement, there was more stabilization than regression, continues the doctor. We deeply hope that this is a real drop, but it may just be a dip between two waves. As for the rest of France, certain regions such as Brittany, the Center and Aquitaine are much less affected. Let's be careful, warns Jean-Paul Mira. "We hope that with containment, they will remain spared even if we see that the epidemic is gaining ground towards the west. "

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Source: leparis

All life articles on 2020-04-02

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