Every day, Le Parisien takes action to answer your questions about the coronavirus. Today we are interested in the questioning of Leonardo, who wonders what is the number of lives saved thanks to confinement.
Since March 17, France has been under cover and travel has been very restricted. The aim is to limit the spread of the coronavirus and relieve the intensive care units which are experiencing an influx of patients.
A study, on the impact of containment measures in Europe and published by the Imperial College in London on Monday, March 30, estimates 2,500 the number of deaths avoided in France in two weeks. Scientists modeled the death curve based on several factors, including the contagiousness of the virus (the average number of people to whom an infected person transmits it). "Many more deaths will be avoided if we make sure that the measures remain in place until the transmission (from Covid-19, editor's note) drops to low levels," they write.
But we must be careful with this figure of 2,500 deaths avoided. One of the pitfalls of this study, which the authors agree on, is to assume that the same containment measure has a comparable impact in the 11 European countries studied.
Wait for science to progress on this coronavirus
"These studies are based on estimates of parameters that we do not have with certainty, such as the number of asymptomatics", underlines with the Parisian mathematician researcher at CNRS Jean-Stéphane Dhersin, who delved into it with his team.
If he considers this study “relatively robust”, this specialist in epidemic modeling insists on the fact that it gives “an idea and an order of magnitude but which are based only on working hypotheses”.
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It will be necessary to wait until scientific knowledge on this new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is more advanced before new quantified estimates are more precise.
You can ask us all your questions about coronavirus by filling out our form or directly at coronavirus@leparisien.fr. Find all the answers previously published on our dedicated page.