Coronavirus: "Why at least 30 days of confinement, if there is only 14 days of incubation?"

Every day, Le Parisien takes action to answer your questions about the coronavirus. Today, we are looking at Alan's questioning, which asks us: "We know that the incubation period of the virus is 14 days maximum, why speak of a second week of confinement or even worse of 45 days if in two weeks the epidemic can be contained? "

The principle of containment is to prevent a population from spreading the virus during close contact. In an ideal world, to completely stem the coronavirus, it would indeed be necessary that the entire population - nearly 70 million French - remain cloistered at home from one day D, and patient during these 14 days maximum incubation, so that the last patients declare themselves. But that does not stop there, since it is then necessary to wait again, so that these patients are no longer contagious.

"We consider that the contagion period is 15 days from the onset of symptoms," explained Wednesday on RTL Professor Karine Lacombe, head of the infectious diseases department at Saint-Antoine hospital in Paris. This represents, in the event that some present symptoms at the very end of the 14 days of incubation, almost a month of confinement.

Total containment impossible

Now back to reality: complete confinement is purely impossible, especially because some of the patients have symptoms such that they require emergency hospitalization.

They then find themselves in contact with caregivers. The risk of contamination between them, even if these doctors, nurses or nursing assistants are equipped as they can, cannot be excluded.

It is also necessary that confined people can get food, by going to supermarkets where there too, despite the barrier measures in place, a risk of contamination is not to be removed, in particular because the Covid-19 may remain for several hours on certain types of surfaces. Same thing, when they go to medical appointments or to work, when working from home is not possible.

As it is envisaged today, containment therefore does not completely stop the Covid-19 epidemic in just a few weeks, but it reduces its magnitude. This is why the government has chosen to extend the duration of confinement by 15 days and does not exclude, to date, a new renewal after April 15. Recall that the scientific committee recommended a total duration of six weeks of confinement.

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You can ask us all your questions about coronavirus by filling out our form or directly at coronavirus@leparisien.fr. Find all the answers previously published on our dedicated page.