Is this a sign that we are approaching the peak of the coronavirus epidemic? If it is too early to assure it, certain figures let augur a positive evolution and deliver glimmers of hope for the next days.
Whether across the country or in the most affected regions, the number of resuscitation patients is increasing less and less. In some areas, there is even a decrease in the number of serious cases requiring intensive care.
Beware, however, not to ignite too quickly. Like other internet users, the president of the AP-HP, Martin Hirsch, was sorry to see Parisians enjoying the good weather outside this weekend. "Concern shared by all those who had gone to Parisian hospitals: they had encountered too many people in the streets, too many walkers, too many strollers," he wrote on Twitter.
During the @aphp evening crisis meeting, concern shared by all those who had gone to Parisian hospitals: they had encountered too many people in the streets, too many walkers, too many strollers. No relaxation #RestezChezVous @prefpolice @Anne_Hidalgo
- Martin Hirsch (@MartinHirsch) April 4, 2020"This is not the time to relax the effort," insisted the Director General of Health, Jérôme Salomon, on Saturday evening, judging "absolutely imperative to respect the confinement instructions and continue the rigorous application of barrier gestures" . Objective: not to stop this trend which suggests the first effects of the containment implemented on March 17.
In France, the increase in new serious cases slows down
Across France, 6,978 serious cases this Sunday required intensive care or intensive care, 140 more than the day before, announced the Directorate General of Health. This number also includes "people hospitalized abroad, mainly in Germany and to a lesser extent in Switzerland, Luxembourg, Austria and Monaco", tells us Public Health France, which represents 119 patients outside French territory.
The increase was 176 additional beds occupied Saturday, 263 Friday, 382 Thursday, 452 Wednesday, 458 Tuesday and 475 Monday. "This constant need to find new places is increasing less rapidly each day," rejoiced Jérôme Salomon on Saturday.
At this rate, a decrease in the number of patients hospitalized in intensive care seems to be a possible objective in the medium term. In Italy, the curve reversed this Saturday, for the first time since the start of the crisis. "This offers severe patients the possibility of being better cared for in less overcrowded hospitals," observes the Parisian virologist Marie-Paule Kieny, research director at Inserm.
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Another indicator: the number of new patients admitted to intensive care each day when they were not there the day before. On Sunday, there were 390, compared to 502 Saturday, 641 Friday and 729 Thursday. Jérôme Salomon had given this figure for the first time on Friday.
Contacted by the Parisian, Public Health France gives us the data for the previous days: 543 patients Sunday March 29, 694 Monday March 30, 767 Tuesday March 31 and 771 new admissions Wednesday April 1. We are therefore witnessing a continuous decline since Wednesday.
“The trend is good. However, we must wait until it is confirmed over a slightly longer period before we can speak of an epidemic decline, ”comments epidemiologist Antoine Flahault, professor of public health at the University of Geneva.
The number of people admitted to intensive care is "the most important element," said Jérôme Salomon, Sunday, March 29, during his daily review. On Saturday, the DGS also indicated that the outings of “sheaves” were “more and more numerous”, without specifying what was the proportion of seriously ill patients whose condition had improved and the proportion of those who had died. The fact remains that he was delighted that "the number of people healed is increasing very rapidly". On Sunday, 16,183 patients hospitalized at one time since the start of the epidemic had left their place of care.
As for the number of additional deaths in hospital in 24 hours, it was this Sunday down for the second consecutive day (357, against 441 Saturday and a peak at 588 Friday).
Fewer resuscitation patients in the Grand Est
At the regional level, other figures give reason to hope, such as the situation in the Grand-Est, the second region with the most serious cases (behind Ile-de-France).
Sunday, for the second consecutive day, the territory had fewer patients hospitalized in intensive care than the day before (950, against 960 Saturday and 971 Friday). Such a drop had never been seen before. The previous three days, the increase had been + 28, + 31 and + 22.
In Ile-de-France (plus Oise), the number of patients hospitalized in intensive care increased “only” by 72 Sunday compared to Saturday, and by 60 between Friday and Saturday, the two smallest increases since March 22. 2579 occupied beds are reached.
These data should however be put into perspective by the patient transfers from these two regions under health tension to other less affected areas in the west and center of the country. A total of 613 patients were displaced between March 18 and April 5. At least 325 transfers originated in the Grand Est (93 between Thursday 2 and Saturday April 4), and 177 in Île-de-France (129 between Thursday 2 and Saturday April 4).
Furthermore, if the number of hospital deaths in these two regions remains at a high level (142 in Île-de-France and 69 in Grand Est on Sunday, according to data from Public Health France), it is decreasing compared to the previous day (- 20% and - 25%, respectively). These still important figures can be explained in particular by the fact that these patients who did not survive were often hospitalized several days or even weeks ago, ie before they could hope to see positive effects of confinement.
Still a positive balance in Paris
If we zoom in even more, the Bas-Rhin, the fourth department with the most patients in serious condition, can also breathe a little. Sunday, the territory had 268 patients in intensive care, 9 fewer than the day before. On Saturday, we had already observed a first drop (- 6), which was previously unheard of since the start of containment.
The situation is more contrasted in inner Paris, largely at the head of the departments most affected. 838 people were hospitalized there in intensive care on Sunday, 29 more than the day before. This is more than Saturday (26 more serious cases supported), but it is the fourth smallest increase since March 21. A way to recall this paradoxical situation: if the figures show a less negative trend than before, the fight is still far from won.