Corona war staff at National Security Council outlined long-term exit plan • Interval between the various stages: about two weeks • Additional condition for closure: At least 10,000 tests a day • Concern: Collapse of medical system in case of premature release • "Vaccine development may take several years"

The road to release from a long closure? A report submitted by an expert team appointed by the National Security Council (NSC) last week, titled "Ensuring containment and planning of the exit phase," set tough conditions for exit from the closure imposed following the Corona eruption, warning that a return to routine could lead to a new outbreak and even collapse The public health system.

Ministry of Health instructions to prevent the spread of the Corona virus in Israel // Courtesy of the Ministry of Health

According to the report, the main condition that the experts present is the reduction in the rate of new patients to 10 per day (minus patients coming from abroad and entering isolation). Also, if the number of new patients reaches 40 per day, the government will have to renew the restrictions.

"Social isolation policy will be facilitated in a gradual manner, and the economy will gradually be restored to function, only after the new patients' rate (less coming from abroad) is reduced to about 10 per day. A decline to this rate is required to ensure with a high level of confidence that we can stem a recurrence without having to reactivate acute social isolation measures, ”the report said.

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The report also clarified that closure in some areas of the country will not be possible to take while other areas will continue to have a high rate of infection. The number of ten patients per day is set to create a safety range that will prevent the collapse of the health care system in Israel, according to the experts. Hospitals causing inability to provide adequate care (lack of ICU beds, lack of ventilator). For this purpose, we are declining both the criterion that will facilitate closure, and the criterion that will have to go back and apply regional or state protection, ”the MLA explained.

However, in the event of a recurrence, it will be treatable at the regional level, provided that sufficient regional measurements are possible. "To avoid the need for national measures to be implemented in the event of a targeted outbreak, it is essential to measure the rate of new patients in each area individually."

Another condition - at least 10,000 tests a day

The experts also point out that in order to curb the outbreak, it is necessary to increase the ability of epidemiological investigations "This effort is similar to the effort invested in detecting individual casualties," the researchers noted, including not one public health expert.

"The ability to prevent the formation of an infection, and if it happens - to locate and isolate it quickly, is critical to keeping the system in dynamic equilibrium." Another necessary condition for curbing an outbreak after quitting is to conduct 10,000 laboratory tests a day, some of which will be allocated to at-risk populations and people who come into contact with a large population.

Vaccination - but only in a few years

According to the NSC, exiting the closure will have to be done at weekly intervals to examine the effect of any relief. In addition, the report states that "the epidemic will have to continue in this manner until vaccine development and this can take several years."

The chair of the team is Prof. Eli Waxman, a physicist from the Weizmann Institute and the Atomic Energy Committee and members of his team of physics, psychology, economics, and nonprofit staff.