Red, green, orange…? Since Thursday, the French have been clinging to these famous multicolored cards to try to guess, if, at the deconfinement planned for May 11, they will be entirely free to move. These maps, updated every day, are already experiencing some hiccups. In question: one of their criteria, which assesses the circulation of the virus based on the number of emergency visits for suspected Covid-19.
Thursday evening, the Ministry of Health released a first version of this map, dividing the French departments into three zones: one in red (the one where the deconfinement will be more strict), one in green (where the deconfinement rules will be more free ), and one in orange (departments doomed to switch to red or green later).
This map is based on two others: one which assesses the extent of hospital stress, and one which assesses the rate of circulation of the virus within the department. It is enough that a department is in red on one of the two maps for it to be on the final map.
I CANNOT believe that one of the government's key indicators for deconfinement is the percentage of "COVID suspect" patients in the emergency room. How can we
a) be so stupid
or b) take people so much for idiots?
But the map assessing the circulation rate of the virus is already the subject of criticism. "I can't believe that one of the government's key indicators for deconfinement is the percentage of" COVID suspect "patients in the emergency room. How can we a) be as c * n or b) take people as much for c ** s? Reacted the emergency physician Yonathan Freund, practicing at the hospital of Pitié-Salpêtrière, on Twitter, Friday evening.
Local errors
The relevance of this figure can indeed be questioned. It includes all suspicions, and therefore does not make a difference with ultimately negative cases. And it excludes, in fact, the many patients who have seen city doctors for diagnosis.
The virus circulation rate being based on a proportion, it can also lead to surprising rankings for certain departments. This is the case of Lot, yet little affected by the epidemic, which found itself in red Thursday evening. “There are only a hundred emergency visits in the Lot every day. The rate that switches to red has been set by the national at 10%. It is therefore on 10 people that it is played out, "already explained the Regional Health Agency (ARS) of Occitania in the night from Thursday to Friday with surprised elected officials.
#Coronavirus | Epidemic activity indicators
Map of active circulation of # COVID19:
🔴 + 10%
🟠 6 - 10%
🟢 0- 6%
✅ Know the health recommendations: https://t.co/0I8koxwBRQ
📲 Follow the indicators of epidemic activity: https://t.co/AgaEUYBU4c pic.twitter.com/fQRtppY75k
“It turns out that the practice observed in a hospital center in the Lot is to record emergency visits for sampling for the end of virological testing. This practice weighs heavily on the indicator in the Lot because of the low number of emergency visits. This peculiarity therefore distorts the national's assessment of the situation, ”explains the Regional Health Agency. Similar calculation errors have also been noted in Cher or Haute-Corse. They were corrected in a new edition of the map on Friday.
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Conversely, the departments of Bas-Rhin or Haut-Rhin, and some in Ile-de-France, appeared green on a Thursday map, while they are more seriously affected by the epidemic. On the final map, however, they appeared in red because of the high hospital tension in these territories. Friday, these inconsistencies were corrected in a new version of the card.
#Coronavirus | Situation on May 1, 2020
Active circulation of # COVID19:
🔴 + 10%
🟠6 - 10%
🟢0- 6% pic.twitter.com/vU0cAoW24M
Santé Publique France, which collects and cross-checks this data at the request of the ministry, declared that this criterion of emergency visits was not necessarily the most reliable. It presents "limits when it is interpreted alone", admits the institution in a press release Friday.
A temporary criterion
But, if this criterion is not reliable enough, why was it chosen as the determining factor by the Ministry of Health? Santé Publique France explains that this imperfect indicator is used to "prepare the pre-deconfinement period, because it reflects the use of care for suspected COVID-19, and is an early indicator to assess the circulation of the virus".
To improve these counts, Public Health France relies on the contextualizations of local authorities. “The ARS are asked to take into account the indicators available locally and the territorial context of interpretation. The daily risk analysis contextualized with and by local actors is then consolidated at the national level ”, adds Santé Publique France.
The institution recommends, in the future, to privilege "the positivity rate of RT-PCR tests to SARS-CoV-2 on the whole territory". A criterion that will only be available "when the indication for tests is extended and the national information system (SIDEP) for Covid-19 screening is operational". To have a more precise virus circulation rate, we will have to wait until May 11.
