Emergency restructuring: what is the state's plan in the event of a second wave?

"Reconfinement in emergency", "brake", "reversibility" ... Call it what you want, but the hypothesis of putting the French under cover is entirely possible in the event of a massive return of the epidemic.

The government's “Monsieur déconfinement”, Jean Castex, hammered him at the start of the week. It is "unthinkable", he said, to consider an exit plan without imagining perhaps having to backtrack. Especially in the absence of vaccine, treatment and given the low immunity reached today by our society.

But on what criteria could this much-feared decision be taken? On what scale? And what would that imply concretely? Here's what we know.

Three key indicators

Jean Castex unveiled Tuesday in a parliamentary committee the criteria for assessing the intensity of the epidemic. These are more or less those that allowed the authorities to color the French departments in red or green in view of May 11. In other words, there are three main categories:

- The “active circulation of the virus” , calculated from several departmental data (share of emergency visits for suspected Covid-19, feedback from the SOS Doctors, etc.).

- The "level of tension" in the intensive care units and in intensive care. Data available at regional level.

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- The results of virological tests . “The Germans put the brakes on when, for a district, there are 50 new contaminations per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days. We would need the number of cases per day, at the national level, to double what it is today for us to reconfigure, "said Jean Castex. As of May 12, there were 708 new positive screenings in 24 hours.

"Reconfinement": "It would be unreasonable not to consider it considering this virus which is always there and which is unpredictable", assures @JeanCASTEX, which evokes a possible reconfinement which could be "territorialized". # DirectAN #COVID ー19 pic.twitter.com/C9LHS62P8A

"If a certain number of indicators deteriorate, we will not wait until June 2 to draw the consequences," warned Jean Castex before the deputies. June 2, as a reminder, is the date on which new announcements must be made on the follow-up to be given to the deconfinement in the red and green zones. Restaurants, bars and cultural places will be particularly affected by this new phase.

A reconfiguration "as territorial as possible"

If a reconfiguration is necessary, the government wishes in any case to adapt it as much as possible to local situations. That is to say at the scale of "clusters". Proximity therefore, but also reactivity. In a public report submitted to the government, he therefore advocated only slowly "disarming" capacities in intensive care beds so as "to be reversible very quickly (within 24, 48 or 72 hours depending on the beds) to cope to a new influx of patients. "

"We have three sets of indicators" to decide on a possible reconfiguration, explains @JeanCASTEX: an indicator of "virus circulation", indicators of "hospital bed capacity and in particular of resuscitation" and "test results virological "#COVID ー 19 pic.twitter.com/iTU20jDZkg

From an economic and social point of view, Jean Castex also calls for “providing social and economic support systems of the nature of those put in place during the confinement period”, but also to “better prevent psychosocial risks. social confinement, now better known "(stress, anxiety, depression ...).

In terms of travel limitation, however, it remains very vague. Would there be a need for a derogatory displacement certificate again? Would it be forbidden to jog beyond a perimeter of one kilometer?

"A large part of success in the hands" of citizens

Like the government, Jean Castex has in any case heavily insisted on the "civism" of the French to avoid such a dark scenario. "A big part of success in their hands," he repeated. In particular urging each person to "call the doctor as soon as they have symptoms to get tested." It is decisive, "he said. According to him, France will be in a good position to carry out 700,000 tests per week. What some observers doubt. "But I'm afraid people won't go," fears Jean Castex.

He has not been closed to the idea of ​​making the mask mandatory in public space. "It's difficult to rebuild confidence and give people room to maneuver and want to regulate everything." Especially since this fragile balance is compounded by the many unknown areas of this virus. "He could also come back for an unexplained reason," admitted Jean Castex, taking South Korea as an example, this model student who has suffered a sudden increase in the number of proven cases in recent days.