Maria Laura Avignolo
05/13/2020 - 15:35
- Clarín.com
- Society
The coronavirus epidemic "is in the process of ending" and "if there is a second wave, it will not be with the virulence of the first wave." It is the forecast of the famous and controversial French epidemiologist and professor Didier Raoult, who sponsors chloroquine to prevent the virus from spreading to the lungs, from his scientific institute in Marseille.
When France is in the process of being out of control and a second wave of contagion is feared due to the excesses of the French in their outings and the disrespect for social distance, Dr. Raoult minimizes this possibility as well.
In his weekly publication on You Tube on Wednesday, the professor and director of the Mediterranée Infection Institute stated that “the epidemic is in the process of being resolved and there is nowhere to be seen a second wave. There will be only sporadic cases, which will appear here or there. Eventually if someone is super contagious, there will be some cases around him but that will not translate into an epidemic dynamic, "said Professor Raoult, whose fame is as huge as the controversy that it generates among his peers.
"In Marseille we are seeing that it is in the process of disappearing, with a single case detected yesterday, despite the fact that we have tested 2000 cases. Hydroxychloroquine decreases viral load. In Spain and Italy there is the same trend, unfortunately we have to wait for several deaths that are currently in intensive care. We are seeing everywhere that this episode is in the process of being resolved. This epidemic is on the way to disappear ”, he declared.
The professor considers that there are lessons in the crisis, which has generated so much fear. ”What we see is that in an epidemic like this there are things that should not be forgotten. In particular it is a virus that we do not know and most of the speculations that we made of this epidemic have been false. It is a respiratory disease different from the others, which attacks the lungs deeply and not on the surface: respiratory signs are late, "he described.
Raoult referred to a fundamental and parallel element to the coronavirus: the terror that it produces and that has spread to the population . “Nor does this fear of the epidemic, which has invaded everything, end up replacing what is common medicine. People must be healed, not left at home. If you heal people, even if you do not have the necessary medicines to kill the virus, the patient will do better in the end and there will be fewer deaths. The mortality rate at our institute was 0.8 percent, "he said.
Roualt defended his treatment with hydroxychloroquine. "If we think our treatment works better, we decrease the mortality rate, particularly among the vulnerable population. But the fact of looking after people, giving them oxygen, anticoagulants to this disease that affects coagulation, of observing them, is important. In an epidemic, we cannot say that we do not heal people, "he recommended.
According to the Marseille professor, “for the therapeutic strategy there was also confusion because there is a scientific evaluation project. It may be the reason why we did not heal people because there were no results, "he suggested. A veiled critique of the Parisian scientific elite that fights it hard, although its protocol was used in 19 hospitals.
Then he defended his decision to use hydroxychloroquine, when he said that extensive studies that come from China show that his treatment "allows to decrease the viral load, reduce admission to resuscitation and save lives."
"The only medicine with evidence published in scientific journals with studies is hydroxychloroquine. I never doubted its effectiveness, "he said.
When France is in its third day of confinement, Raoult said that “this crisis has shown that the care organization in this country has been unable to make a strategy to develop systematic tests in this country. It is banal and there are many volunteers to do it. There is a deep tendency to monopolize the ability to diagnose people who are deeply anti-medical, ”he said.
"We must reflect on this in the future because we cannot say that we do not heal people, we cannot prevent them from being cured. The real lesson is that for new diseases you have to be ready, you have to be quick, organized and with an open spirit because This disease has taught us many things about respiratory tension, coagulation, "he said.
He and his institute are already working on the sequelae of the virus in patients. He is concerned about what the people who have not been diagnosed with, have not been to the hospital, and have had the virus at home.
"Now we must analyze sequelae, particularly fibrosis, which is not unimportant. Our plan now is to detect as soon as possible the people who have had fibrosis and access people who have not been diagnosed and have suffered from this disease," said Professor Didier. Raoult.
He does not believe that a wave of contagion is underway, despite the fact that the French do not respect social distance in their lack of confidence, an opinion shared by Karine Lacombe, head of the infectious service at Saint Antoine hospital in Paris.
"If there is a second wave, it will not be like the first we have seen, with classic schemes. It will be of small cases, of small" clusters ", that small groups that we will be able to confine. I think that will happen like this and step by step, we will have less and less case ”clarified the infectologist.
Other infectologists, such as Gilles Pialoux, do not consider a second wave impossible, but that it may be possible "for simple mechanical reasons."
For the cardiologist Alain Ducardonet there are two criteria to consider. "Is it going to end, as Professor Didier Raoult says, or is it going to come back? . The important thing is to know if we are going to be able to control it. It is completely different from the first wave because we have a greater knowledge of the virus and the ability to test. You have to see the other affected countries, where there is a small contagion but not an explosion. "
But he waits for it in the European autumn, parallel to the flu epidemic. Scientists in France do not want to give a last word: everyone waits for the coming weeks and the reaction of the virus.