Italy's GDP is expected to drop 14% in 2020 before rising 5.3% in 2021 should there be a second wave of viruses. If, on the other hand, it is possible to avoid the return of the invisible enemy, the GDP should drop by 11.3% in 2020 and rise by 7.7% in 2021: this is what is stated in the card dedicated to Italy of the Economic Perspectives of the OECD.
In the event of a second epidemic wave by the end of the year, Italy's public debt will go from 134.8% of GDP in 2019, to 169.9% in 2020, and then fall to 165.5% in 2021. In In the event that the second wave does not occur, the public debt will drop from 134.2% in 2019 to 158.2% in 2020, and then go down to 152.2% in 2021.
"Beyond the short-term risks associated with the pandemic crisis, the main risk concerns the strength and duration of the recovery. The tourism sector in Italy is particularly vulnerable to a prolonged crisis in the so-called 'double impact' scenario (ie say with a second wave of viruses in 2020, ed.), because tourism is likely to weaken in the medium term as well as small businesses in the sector, 52,000 only as regards housing ": this is what we read in the card dedicated to Italy of the OECD Economic Outlook.
The coronavirus crisis represented "a step backwards in efforts to achieve stronger and more inclusive growth. Emergency measures to deal with the economic fallout from the crisis are justified and efforts should be completed and doubled to continue a ambitious program of structural reforms ": this is what the OECD writes in the Economic Outlook page dedicated to Italy. For the Paris-based international body, "continuing to extend support in areas where demand could return quickly can avoid unemployment and accelerate recovery".
