What is the significance of the increase in the number of severely ill patients? • And what can be deduced from the "regret" age of the infected? • An alarming report warns of an "overcoming eruption"

The increase in the number of corona patients, along with the increase in the number of severely ill patients and the spread of morbidity in 57 localities around the country, is evidence of "aggravation of morbidity, in a way that is reminiscent of the beginning of the first wave", a report by the Corona National Knowledge and Information Center warns Joint with the IDF and the Ministry of Health.

Photo: Ministry of Health

According to the report, published under the headline "Are we at the opening of a second wave?" Only 862 cases were diagnosed and in the last week of May - only 343 cases.

Part of the increase in diagnoses is due to the fact that the number of tests has doubled and the policy has changed.

The positive test rate over the past week was 1.3%, compared to 7.3% at the beginning of the first wave, and the report's authors note that "the percentage of positive tests low represents a better grip on the true picture of the outbreak."

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An increase was also recorded in the number of new hard-to-reach patients, whose number rose by 21 people in the past week, five times more than in the last week of May, when only four were reported, and 19 at the beginning of the first wave.

The number of severely ill patients is considered to be a "hard" measure that is unaffected by the extent of the tests, and therefore it represents the extent of the morbidity in the population. The researchers note that this is a "significant increase. This development may indicate a worsening of morbidity."

The distribution of patients' ages differs in the current wave: from the infestation event at the Hebrew Gymnasium in Jerusalem at the end of May, there is a trend to increase the rate of infection to the age of 19, and a decrease in the proportion of people aged 50 plus. However, younger patients are less prone to complications.

The young age of the infectious explains why the extent of the currently difficult patients is not high, but indicates another alarming trend. "The fact that the number of new patients in their current condition is similar in magnitude to that observed at the beginning of the first wave, despite the decline in the age of the infectious agent, may be worrisome, since the incidence of the infectious age from the mask may actually be even higher than the estimated incidence," the National Knowledge Center staff wrote After the number of infections in this age group.

Another trend that has been identified is the increase in non-symptomatic infections, probably due to the widening of the tests. In March, only 19% of the diagnosed were without symptoms, in April - 29%, and in May - 48%, almost half of the diagnosed, were without symptoms. This may indicate that the diagnosis is made at earlier stages of the disease, or in populations less likely to develop symptoms, such as children.

"It's hard to determine unequivocally whether we are at the beginning of a second wave of morbidity, similar in magnitude to this," the report's authors noted, "alongside a decline in patients' daily growth rate and a low rate of positive tests, which are encouraging signs, there is concern that we may be in the "Accelerating the epidemic."

The researchers recommend increasing alertness, enforcement and testing, along with the ability to interrogate and cut the adhesive chains. "The daily growth rate should continue to be monitored. If the rate of daily growth returns to be positive and significant for a few days, we may experience an eruption that may increase at a rising rate, which will require a broad state response."

Head of Public Health Prof. Sigal Sadecki warned earlier in the Corona Commission's Knesset debate that "we are certainly rising in pace with our doubling. Unfortunately, we see a correlation between the opening of the economy and what we see now. Terminology doesn't matter - whether it's a wave or not a wave "Sporadic, simple and large-scale morbidity among students, which was not the first wave. I'm sorry, but we can see that the disease is coming back. We are in a gradual rise that looks like the beginning of a wave. There is a widespread increase throughout the country, especially children."

The dispersal of morbidity, which, as Sadecki said in 57 localities, may indicate significant contagion in the community. The Knesset debate noted that discussions are being held on imposing restrictions on neighborhoods in southern Tel Aviv or communities in the Negev that are the centers of morbidity.