In 2020/21 there is a risk of a collapse of university students: 10,000 fewer students, two thirds of whom are from the South. This is what Svimez estimates, according to which "an assessment of the possible effects of the Covid crisis on enrollment in the University in the next academic year, based on what happened in the previous crisis, triggers the alarm, especially with reference to the South ".
Replying the pattern that emerged in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 crisis and in the hypothesis of a worsening of the school-university transfer rates to the levels of previous years, Svimez estimates that the decrease in nationally registered students amounts to around 9,500 students of which approximately 6,300 in the South and 3,200 for the Center North.
As of 2020, an estimated 292,000 adults are estimated in the Center-North and around 197,000 in the South, reads the Svimez note by the director Luca Bianchi and Gaetano Vecchione (Svimez - Univ. Federico II Napoli). Estimating the impact of the economic crisis on the school / university transfer rate, Svimez highlights that the previous crisis has shown a high elasticity of this rate to the weakening of household incomes especially in the South: in light of this, a reduction in the continuation rate of 3.6 points in the South and 1.5 in the Center-North.