Once again, the WHO draws the alarm signal. The Covid-19 pandemic "continues to accelerate," the organization's chief executive, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, warned on Monday. In total, more than nine million people worldwide have been infected from the start, more than half of them in Europe and the United States.
"It took more than three months for the first million cases to be reported. The last million cases were reported in just eight days, "said the leader. And even in just seven days, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
This observation is not the same according to the continents. Indeed, the global increase in the number of patients is mainly due to the situation in Latin America, Africa and Asia, where the curve of the number of new daily cases always follows an upward slope, as shown in the infographic below. below. For more readability, we have distinguished North and South America, and discarded Oceania which is at very low levels.
Of course, this finding may be qualified by the fact that many countries also carry out more tests. "But we do not test much in certain large countries, such as South Africa and Brazil," relativizes the epidemiologist Antoine Flahault, according to whom "the number of new cases is, today, a relevant indicator to measure the progression of the epidemic ”.
The daily number of deaths is to be analyzed with several days or even weeks of additional follow-up due to the time interval with screening.
About the divergence.
For the US, I plotted the 7-day rolling average of new confirmed cases and deaths superimposed. You can see the separation of these curves started ~ 40 days ago and is steadily increasing. Only wish that it will continue. pic.twitter.com/Yc3Hgmn6Y5
We take stock, continent by continent.
Europe breathes but fears a "second wave"
Long considered by WHO to be the epicenter of the epidemic, Europe seems to be able to breathe, after long weeks of confinement imposed in the majority of countries. In France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries, at least, the number of new cases from June 15 to 22 was lower than the previous week.
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However, we must remain vigilant, which is regularly reminded in France by the General Directorate of Health. A glance at the situation with some of our neighbors encourages us to be cautious. In Germany, Portugal and some central European countries, new sources of contamination raise fears of a "second wave". To avoid this, the authorities of the German Land of North Rhine-Westphalia announced, on Tuesday morning, a reconfiguration of the 360,000 inhabitants of the canton of Gütersloh. In the Lisbon region, new containment measures also came into effect on Tuesday.
“Containment is a very heavy weapon but has proven to be very effective in Europe or in China. This seems much more difficult in countries where the economic and social situation is worse. To put it briefly, to be able to afford to be confined and to be deprived of work without the social shock absorbers which compensate for the loss of earnings caused, one should not have difficulties to feed one's family on a daily basis, "underlines Antoine Flahault.
In the United States, the epidemic is starting again in certain states
In North America, the eyes are mainly focused on the United States. Especially since the country chaired by Donald Trump is facing a further increase in the number of new cases in the last twenty days, after a lull until the beginning of June. The blame for the worsening health situation in several southern and western states, including Florida, Arizona and South Carolina.
Good news, however: the daily number of deaths in the United States continues to drop, almost three weeks after the increase in the number of new cases. But this could be explained in particular by the younger age of the new patients, who therefore have less risk of dying, according to several experts. The risk being that they transmit, in a second time, the virus to more vulnerable individuals.
Critical situation in Latin America
Latin America clearly seems to be the most critical region in the world. All of its countries, except Paraguay and Peru, registered more new cases from June 15 to 22 than in the previous week.
In Brazil, the second country in the world with the most positive patients (more than a million) behind the United States, President Jair Bolsonaro maintains his desire not to confine the population. The number of new patients continues to soar, although the increase is smaller than several weeks ago.
Conversely, in Peru, "our epidemic shows a decrease" and "the speed of contagion has decreased", rejoiced on Tuesday the Minister of Health, Victor Zamora. Shopping centers reopened there Monday, after 99 days of confinement.
Africa, less and less spared
Long spared by the coronavirus, notably due to the younger age of its population, less urbanization, or even less massive screening, Africa is in turn facing a epidemic wave. The barrier of 300,000 patients was crossed on June 21 and the number of cases from June 15 to 22 was higher than the previous week in a good part of the continent.
South Africa, the most populous country, has counted more than 100,000 patients since Monday evening. Fortunately, with less than 2,000 deaths, only 2% of those infected have died there so far, a lower case fatality rate than in countries with far fewer sick people.
The situation is also worrying in less developed countries, which have poorer health infrastructures and less access to screening. "Even though the number of cases and deaths is much lower than what has been observed in other regions of the world, the pandemic is still in the ascending phase. The peak is not reached in most countries of the continent, ”warned the WHO Regional Director for Africa, Matshidiso Moeti, on June 18.
"In all cases, but in particular in the absence of a vaccine and without significant screening capacity, the main weapon today against this coronavirus is the wearing of a mask, especially in closed places and public transport", underlines his side Antoine Flahault.
In Asia, fears in China
China, where the epidemic started in late 2019, feared the beginnings of a "second wave" last week after the appearance of several dozen cast in Beijing. However, the situation was quickly "under control", the authorities assured.
In the infographic below, China should therefore change to blue in a few days. But the situation remains volatile, especially since the country chaired by Xi Jinping has often been accused of lacking transparency regarding the actual assessment of the pandemic among its population.
In other countries, new cases are increasing again, presumably due to too early deconfinement. In Azerbaijan, new restrictive measures have been taken. Since this Sunday and until August 1, residents are only allowed to go out "once a day, for a maximum of two hours" and after having received authorization by SMS from the authorities, said the Prime Minister Ali Asadov.
As for South Korea, it has been facing a "second wave" from the middle of the month, the authorities acknowledged on Tuesday. The country is again considering restricting land arrivals. It must be said that of the 46 new patients identified this Tuesday (out of a total of 12,484 since the start of the epidemic), 30 are passengers from abroad.
VIDEO. "The pandemic continues to accelerate" says WHO