Irene Hartmann
08/01/2020 - 7:00
- Clarín.com
- Society
It was midmorning. The girl in quarantine for the coronavirus, going through the most embolant winter holidays of her life, asked her mother with a moving intention, coincidentally the one who writes: “But if you can't give it to me for Children's Day, could it be In Christmas?". The same time that the pandemic has been in the country is the one that is missing for the New Year's Parties: five months to sweat the fat drop looking for gifts, in that characteristic partial "stand" (today, a nightmare term) in which we We invent that something will change after the New Year and try a balance of the months that are gone. There is a long way to go, yes, but the question may not be delusional: are they going to let us get together to celebrate the Holidays?
And if they leave us, what will it be like? Together, not so much or directly online? How many? Outdoors or indoors? With air conditioning or letting the heat of December run, to lessen the contagiousness of the coronavirus?
Let us first clear that question: the myth of heat and its effects on the Covid-19. Already this week, the World Health Organization assured, as something proven, that the SARS-CoV2 virus is not activated or deactivated with cold or heat. So, unlike the flu or influenza, the temperatures of summer, autumn, winter and spring do not affect the circulation of the virus.
Added to this is the news that comes from the other side of Ecuador. In the northern hemisphere, although the lack of respect for restrictions as a cause has an influence, in countries such as Italy and Spain, outbreaks are being seen in the middle of summer .
Because of the coronavirus, hitting the cups or squeezing around a Christmas table are going to be photos of the past.
But returning to Argentina and the Fiestas, Clarín spoke with seven infectious diseases specialists , most with decisive positions in academic units and AMBA health centers.
A summary? In December the coronavirus will continue to be among us . Second, it is presumed with a million quotation marks and parentheses, that is, with all possible explanatory exceptions, that by December 24 and 31 we should be able to gather to celebrate in “family bubble” groups , that is, not more than 10 people . But everything is subject to 1) the size of the space, 2) the health status of the participants, 3) the epidemiological situation of the jurisdiction in question. Below, what each specialist said.
Glory of the Vine
Medical infectologist. Head of Infectology at the San Martín de La Plata Hospital
"It is risky to say what can happen at the Holidays, but the certain thing is that we are going to go through them and they are going to be different from the previous ones: we are going to have to get used to not being crowded . Now we have a few more complex weeks remaining than those that we had so far. Not that I'm particularly scared of the death toll: over 30,000 people die from influenza and pneumonia each year. Coronavirus deaths are not few, but far from those numbers. The problem is that many are now arriving in the same moment, but this time allowed us to get ready. So I would say that we are going to have New Year's Parties, but with changes. We are going to be much better than now, there is no doubt, but first we have to spend the next few weeks. "
The isolation center for mild coronavirus patients in Costa Salguero. Photo: Andrés D'Elía
Pablo Bonvehí
Infectious medicine doctor. Scientific director of Vacunar, head of Infectology at CEMIC and adviser to the Government on the pandemic.
"With 5 months to go, the world has been experiencing this pandemic for 7 years, and the scientific news is coming quickly. If one took as a basis what happened in other countries where the coronavirus arrived earlier, one would have to think that the Holidays will be under the framework of the measures social distancing , without large meetings, maintaining hygiene measures It may be necessary to develop protocols , in order to reduce potential outbreaks, considering that the activity of the epidemic in the AMBA, at that point should have decreased significantly. The country will have to see what happens, since some provinces are only now starting with infections. Perhaps bubbles of family contacts can be created . One possibility would be for family members to take maximum protection measures during the 14 days prior to the Holidays, avoiding unnecessary contacts , protecting itself according to the protocols, to arrive at New Year's Eve with the least possible risk ".
Ricardo Teijeiro
Infectious medicine doctor at the Pirovano Hospital.
"It is to be thought that for the Holidays we have certain liberties, but everything will be restricted to small gatherings . Nobody imagines that the activity is absolutely liberated in December. In any case, one sees the regions that started before us with the coronavirus, and we see that there are some outbreaks in countries like Spain, Italy or Israel. The virus is here to stay; it will undoubtedly continue to circulate from here to five months, and even more so if we have epidemiological gaps, that is, groups of people who did not have contact with the virus. virus. Vaccine is not expected to be by then ... limitations are clear. How many can we get together? Depends on the risk of the participants and the size of the place : if you have a square meter, two people is a lot. a quincho, 10 could be fine. If it is Catamarca or Villa 31, where 60% was Covid-19 positive, it is something else. Punctual decisions will be necessary for each case. "
Toy pandas are placed on tables for social distancing from the pandemic, in the Sögütözü district of Ankara, Turkey. / AFP
Silvia González Ayala
Medical infectologist. Full professor of the chair of Infectology of the Faculty of Medical Sciences of the National University of La Plata.
"There is a lot of concern and uncertainty. Responsibly, we can say that we are tracing the curve of cases . How much will it rise? It will depend on each person: many did not incorporate preventive practices and it is seen on public roads: 50% of people, even though they have a face mask, they go with their noses exposed . The distance between one person and another is not being respected either. If each one does not take care of himself, if each one does not take care of his family and his community, it is unpredictable. But if the epidemiological parameters accompany and the cases decrease, I would dare to say that, just like the whole year, they are going to be some private Holidays . Most likely, we can meet in small groups, no more than 10 people taking care of those most at risk, with distance, frequent handwashing and chinstrap. In other words, maintaining the family bubble , the nucleus of those who are very close, as long as they have maintained preventive measures. Despite all the precautions, the cases in Argentina increased by way of important. This, I repeat, is related to the care of each one. "
Gustavo Lopardo
Stamboulian infectious medicine doctor, government advisor on the pandemic and local reference for the "Solidarity" project.
"When asked about the New Year's meetings, as a doctor I cannot give an answer. Spain had opened (the restrictions imposed by the quarantine) and is now re-closing due to the outbreaks of coronavirus cases. I think we should focus in aspects of the pandemic for which there is some scientific and epidemiological evidence. "
This is how the beach of San Sebastián, Spain, looked like on July 19, the country in which the quarantine is having to go backwards. / EFE
Omar Sued
President of the Argentine Society of Infectious Diseases (SADI).
In the exchange with Clarín he said “it would be something like this”, and he forwarded a video of a commercial for a well-known beer brand, in which it is seen how different people learn to spend a leisurely night in a pub , respecting hygiene measures and social distancing. Later, Sued added: “I think we have to look at the day to day of the advance of the pandemic. Hopefully we can at least meet with the family, taking some special care , as the video shows. This, at least, until the coronavirus vaccine is ready. "
Arnaldo Casiró
Infectious medicine doctor. Head of Infectology at the Álvarez Hospital.
"Forecasting is uncomfortable, but, without having the crystal ball, I would think that by December we should be in a conservative opening phase . Looking at today's photo, I think that small meetings of no more than 10 people will be possible , and keeping social distance . Unless something exceptional happens, I don't think we are in a position to live a normal life, as before . And thinking about what will come next, in the summer holidays, if everything is calm, it will surely be as it is happening in Europe: that is, moving in small groups, without buffet in the hotels -or anything like that- and with many hygiene measures. Now, that is accomplished is something else. We are in Argentina ".
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