08/06/2020 - 17:44
One can think of the coronavirus map in the City of Buenos Aires and imagine that it is a wave that begins in the South and breaks north , where the waters are diluted. The Covid is diluted. It loses strength in incidence but at the same time it gains it , because it is where it still has more ground to gain. "Virgin" people, fertile field.
On the opposite side are those neighborhoods that have had the highest incidence of infected and recovered , and which in turn are those that contain emergency villages. To the point that there are ten neighborhoods, starting from the center and towards Soldati, which have higher accumulated contagion rates than Rio de Janeiro or New York, cities in which there have been no quarantines as long or organic as the local one.
Precisely, Soldati is the neighborhood that has had the highest density of infected people. There, one in 18 people was infected (this is always according to official records). At the same level is Retiro and then Barracas , where 1 in 22 people was diagnosed with coronavirus. Those are the three neighborhoods that occupy the podium of the Buenos Aires Covid.
The list continues with Pompeii , where 1 in 24 people tested positive for swabs, and then Lugano and Flores , where the incidence is contagious for 27 residents. Next comes Paternal , with one case every 31 people. A constant is that as more people are contagious and recovering, there are fewer links in the chain to transmit the virus. That makes the new curve start to give way.
The list is completed by La Boca, with one infected every 32 people, and then Constitución and Chacarita, with one infected every 35. This last proportion is exactly what New York has on average today with its more than 8 million inhabitants. While Rio de Janeiro, with just over 6 million inhabitants, has one infected every 36 people. There are only two neighborhoods that even have a higher incidence rate than San Pablo, which are Soldati and Retiro.
City government personnel carry out seroprevalence tests on Floresta residents. Photo: Juano Tesone
At the other end of the City, where the wave breaks and dissolves, are Núñez , with one infected every 153 residents and Versailles , with one every 138 residents. While in Villa Pueyrredón there is one every 137, in Villa Ortúzar one every 133 and in Saavedra , one every 127. In these neighborhoods it is supposedly less likely to come across a person infected, but at the same time the chances increase that a single person can infect to more people ...
Among the neighborhoods with the lowest current incidence are Villa del Parque (1 in 123) and Belgrano (1 in 105). The ten with the fewest cases are completed by Colegiales (1 in 99) and Caballito (1 in 92). In the middle is all the rest.
The City average is one case for every 45 people . The account shows that there is a wide gap between the place with the highest density of cases and the lowest. This means that in Soldati the contagion rate has so far been 750 percent higher than that of Nuñez. In sum, the northern part of the City is today to the Federal Capital what the Interior of Argentina is to the country .
Herd immunity is a controversial concept. There are different theories as to what percentage of recovered people that instance would be reached with the coronavirus. The Buenos Aires Health Minister, Fernán Quirós, rejects this tool as a strategy to confront Covid. In any case, "immunity" occurs by default as each infected person recovers from the disease and acquires antibodies.
There is data that supports this logic, recently published by Clarín , according to which the neighborhoods that had the least number of coronavirus cases are now the ones that grow the most in daily infections. That is, at a higher speed.
Group immunity causes the coronavirus to lose strength. The immunity in the City would be even higher than what was registered, given that the suspicion is that for every infected person detected there would actually be nine other positives that were not tested. That data will become clearer next week, when the results of the Seroprevalence Study that is currently carried out with a sample of 2,000 porteños who have not had symptoms of the virus are known.