Paris, city of Lights… and of the coronavirus? The capital is now one of the epicenters of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. Monday, the incidence rate - the number of new cases during the past week per 100,000 inhabitants - reached 50, exceeding the alert threshold. A situation that echoes that of other European countries where the main metropolis is following a similar trajectory.
Spain, for example, has the worst contagion figures in Western Europe with an average of 4,923 new daily cases recorded during the last seven days. And it is in the capital and largest city of the country, Madrid, that the situation is most worrying. According to the August 11 report of the Community of Madrid's epidemiological surveillance network, a rebound in infections is occurring in nine of the ten main municipalities in the north of Madrid, with Alcobendas and Sanse in the lead, with 131 and 102 new infections confirmed last week . As a result, the city was placed by Germany "in a risk zone", at the same time as the Spanish Basque Country.
Brussels has, like its French counterpart, passed the milestone of 50 Covid-19 contaminations per 100,000 inhabitants over the last seven days, said the authorities, who have imposed the mask in the streets of the city since Wednesday. From August 2 to 8, 54.4 new cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants were identified in Brussels. According to the newspaper Le Soir, the day before, this value was 47.1. Over the same period from August 2 to 8, 663 new contaminations were confirmed in the capital, an increase of 242 cases compared to the previous seven days. Belgium has a total of 75,000 people with the coronavirus, 11% of whom are in Brussels alone, according to the latest report from the Belgian health institute Sciensano.
Attractive cities
How to explain these figures? First of all, by the number of tests carried out. But not only. “Large metropolises have high population densities, which means that the risks of inter-individual contact are higher. In addition, people live in more confined places and therefore the risk of basic contamination is greater in these metropolises. This may partly explain why we immediately see a larger number of reproduction, ”analysis for the Parisian epidemiologist Pascal Crépey.
Another factor is the attractiveness of these cities. “When the virus circulates somewhere, quite quickly it will be imported back into these poles of attraction. This explains this epidemic pressure because these cities are population concentrators. To get around France, we often have to go through Paris, it is also a crossroads for the virus, ”continues Pascal Crépey.
But not all European metropolises follow this path. Rome counted eleven new cases on August 11. If the figures for the whole of Italy are less good - more 463 contaminations in 24 hours throughout the country -, the situation "remains under control", according to the authorities, who fear above all external contaminations.
"The epidemic is escaping us"
On the German side, in Berlin, the number of new infections remains high, with 111 new cases on Tuesday. But many indicators are turning green. "The number of new infections per week per 100,000 inhabitants would be 10.1, well below the critical threshold of 20", we can read on the official website of the city. The R-value, the number of people an infected individual will infect on average, has decreased from 1.27 to 1.09.
“You have to be careful about precise comparisons between cities,” notes Pascal Crépey. But for me, the European situations are relatively similar, namely that we had control over the epidemic in Europe, and since the beginning of July this control has been slipping away from us. The epidemic is slipping away from us. This is generally what is happening in Western Europe. "
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On August 7, in London, the authorities notably warned that the reproduction rate “R” - could soon rise above the 1 mark. “This is a very important parameter for understanding the situation: we have an impact cases which increase, but we must look at the effective R and consider it as an accelerator factor. The speed of propagation increases when it goes to 1. It is not surprising that the number of cases increases, from the moment when the R is greater than 1. Everything must be done to bring this effective reproduction number below the threshold of 1, ”recalls Pascal Crépey.