Worrying situation: Analysis of data from the Ministry of Health shows that the average daily death rate is rising and stands at more than 10 • Meaning: without vaccination in the coming year or decrease in morbidity - thousands will die • And what will be the annual death toll if the daily mortality rate rises to 15? • For all numbers

Analysis of the data turns on a red light: According to a calculation made using data from the Ministry of Health, it was found that if the mortality rate in Israel continues as it is today - there will be 3,710 deaths from corona in Israel per year. Also, if the average number of deaths increases to 15 per day, in light of the increase in infection, the annual number of deaths to be registered is already much higher and may reach 5,475.

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The number of deaths from Corona from the beginning of August to yesterday was taken into account in the calculation, and hence the average daily deaths, which doubled in the number of days in the year. Now, according to a calculation of the 12 days since the beginning of the month, the average number of deaths per day is 10.16. Today (Thursday) another 11 patients have died since midnight, bringing the death toll from the beginning of the month to 133.

Also, from a calculation made during the month of July, of the number of deaths over 10 days in this month (July 16 to 25), the average daily mortality was only 8.1, which shows the trend of worsening mortality in Israel. If this mortality rate were maintained even today, the annual death toll would be 2,956, the smallest number in 700 people from the currently calculated number. 

These numbers are worrying and look to the future if we do not succeed in reducing the rate of infection, and thus the mortality rate. True, the death toll in Israel from other countries with similar or even fewer patients is good. And yet - when these numbers are reflected in the annual quantity, this should turn on a red light.

Today the number of deaths in Israel stands at 643 people, three of them today. Only yesterday, 14 people died. The number of currently verified stands at 88,733, of whom 23,416 are active patients. 153 patients are in moderate condition and 386 in severe condition, of whom 104 are respirators.  

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At the same time, as reported today, from an analysis of coronary heart disease data in Israel, conducted by Prof. Eran Segal of the Weizmann Institute, it can be seen that the risk of men aged 30-40 who contracted the virus deteriorating and becoming seriously ill is almost seven times higher than women.

Men's risk is higher compared to women in all age groups, except among those aged 70 and over, so the risk of men and women and people aged 80 and over is equal to the risk of women with corona disease deteriorating slightly higher than that of men. 

It can now be said what the risk of a corona patient to degenerate into a severe condition according to his age and gender. In both sexes one in three corona patients over the age of 80 will deteriorate to a severe condition (32% in women and 31% in men). Among people aged 70 to 74, the risk of men with corona disease reaching a difficult situation is one in 5 (17.7%), while in women one in 7 (13.2%). At younger ages the risk of deterioration is lower.