Pablo Sigal
08/18/2020 - 20:33
- Clarín.com
- Society
The number of coronavirus cases in Argentina does not stop growing, but it does so slowly . By overcoming the barrier of 300 thousand registered infections on Tuesday , the doubling time was reduced by 5 days compared to the previous doubling. This shows that the speed of the curve slowed down. The same did not happen with the death curve.
The number of cases went from 150 thousand to 300 thousand in 25 days : from July 24 to August 18. The previous doubling, between 75 thousand and 150 thousand cases, had occurred between July 4 and 24, that is, in 20 days . In the case of deaths, the doubling was a faster day: to go from 3,000 to 6,000 it took 21 days , while between 1,500 and 3,000 had passed 22.
The scenario of the pandemic is not the same throughout the country. While the speed of the curve in the city of Buenos Aires shows a decrease , in other provinces it is growing strongly. In the general average, the country is in a better situation - due to the slower speed of the exponential increase - than it was at the end of last month.
When analyzing the situation in the province of Buenos Aires, for example, it is seen that in the same period analyzed (between July 24 and this Tuesday) the number of casesit went from 88,709 to 190,199, that is, it exceeded the doubling in the same period: 114 percent. The City, on the other hand, went from 51,977 cases to 79,252, this is an increase below the national average: 52 percent.
A panning of the main districts of the country reveals the following: Chaco, which was one of the initially most compromised provinces, now increased its flow of infected only 39 percent , even below the city of Buenos Aires; One other side is Jujuy, which registered a rise of 270 percent in 25 days , that is, almost quadrupled the figure, going from 1,353 to over 5,000 cases.
The description of President Alberto Fernández, last Friday, about the situation in the Interior.
Mendoza also experienced a shot: it went from 730 cases to 3,500 and climbed 379 percent . Santa Fe, which had 868 cases and now spreads 3,500, saw a 295 percent increase . Other provinces in which the curve has accelerated in recent weeks are Córdoba, with an increase of 193 percent ; and Río Negro, with 157 percent .
The 305,966 cases that Argentina adds place it 13th in the world and brings it closer to the peloton of the ten countries with the most cases of coronavirus . In South America today it is surpassed by Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Chile. The local fatality rate is much lower than in those places. All have between 300 and 700 deaths per million inhabitants, while Argentina registers 128.
In any case, the fact that the curve of cases increases slower than that of deaths has caused the fatality rate to rise in recent weeks . Today it stands at 2 percent , on July 24 (when the country had 150 thousand cases) that rate was 1.83 percent , with 2,722 deaths for 148,027 cases.
Coronavirus in Argentina
Source: Ministry of Health of the Nation Infographic: Clarín
As the peak approaches , the logical behavior of the pandemic causes the death curve to begin to grow relatively faster than that of cases. The number of infections is low, and deaths are a part of the most serious cases, accumulated during the previous weeks.
The proportion of recovered also grows: 223,531 patients overcame the disease in the country , which represents 73 percent of the total. This number had a strong growth at the beginning of August, when the administrative criterion was changed to consider that a patient has been cured.
Although in the country there may be specific outbreaks in several provinces, the peak will be left behind once a decrease in positive cases is consolidated in the City and province of Buenos Aires , where the majority of Argentines live.The Buenos Aires figures seem to indicate that this instance is close, while the Buenos Aires curve still shows growth above the national average .
The distribution of infections by age indicates that in Argentina half occurred among people between 20 and 40 years old . Boys under 10 years old represent only 12 percent of all cases, while those over 60 years old represent 13 percent, which partly explains the low local mortality.
As a counterpart, 80 percent of the deaths occurred in those over 60 years of age. Only 4 percent of deaths occurred among those under 40 years of age . And between 40 and 60 years, 15.5 percent of the fatalities occurred.
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