Coronavirus in Argentina: the Interior grows everything that the City goes down and the GBA is even at the peak

Pablo Sigal

09/05/2020 - 19:44

• Clarín.com

• Society

During the last month, the City of Buenos Aires experienced a significant slowdown in the growth of its curve.

In return,

.

The intensity and speed with which the curve grew in the provinces was the same with which

The map in this pre-spring present indicates that the City represents

of the cases nationwide, while the Interior accounts for 16 percent.

A month before, the first

of and the provinces as a whole,

This

is the 

, which during the first months had been concentrated in the AMBA.

The province of Buenos Aires, for its part, maintains its representation quota without great variations.

Both at the beginning of September and at the beginning of August,

were rapt

It is striking, when observed, the course that the curves of these three territories have taken.

When doing an analysis since June, it can be seen that from the first day of that month to July 1, the province of Buenos Aires increased its infections

.

The following month it jumped

.

And from August to September,

.

There is a lighter brake than that of the City, and with that momentum it is approaching the peak.

In the case of the City, the increase was

and

.

In the last month the step fell to

.

In the Interior, on the other hand, this variation was from lowest to highest in the same period:

from June to July,

from July to August and

House by house tests in Jujuy, the province that today has the most cases per number of inhabitants.

If one were to suppose that the number of cases should represent the population of each territory, the country today would have an alteration in that sense.

In reality, population density outweighs the number of inhabitants.

City lives the

In the province of Buenos Aires,

lives

While in the rest of the country live

.

The “sharing” of the coronavirus is clearly unbalanced.

The number of infected people in the Interior is growing so much (especially in Jujuy, Santa Fe, Córdoba and Mendoza) that

.

It will happen sooner rather than later, due to the great difference in speed that the curves have reached.

According to Daniel Gervini, professor in the Department of Mathematical Sciences of the University of Wisconsin, United States, "the curve of daily cases in the City of Buenos Aires has been flat since the beginning of August."

And he adds a piece of information: “The news now is that

.

This is important because it confirms the settling;

the cases confirmed by tests always underestimate the real number of infected, but the deaths are generally well counted ”.

On the advent of the peak, he makes a clarification: “Many believe that it is

.

Actually, the peak is the maximum number of daily cases, but after the peak, the daily cases begin to decline slowly or even flatten out for a time, as in the city of Buenos Aires.

Therefore, the peak

, not the end ”.

The road is long and, vaccine orphans, there is still a long way to go: “After the peak

as before the peak.

For this reason, if in the suburbs it happens when there are 400,000 cases as we are predicting, by the end of the pandemic at the end of November there will be a total of 800,000 accumulated cases ".

To this must be added the approximately 200,000 cases planned for the Capital, so that "by the end of November there will be approximately

only

in the metropolitan area of ​​Buenos Aires ", adds Gervini.

If the current mortality rate of approximately 2 percent is sustained over time (the possibility of response from hospitals depends a lot on this), that would mean

by the time the curve finishes descending.

At a global level, the novelty of the last hours is that

in the number of infected (the difference is just over 3,000 cases) to place itself in second place in the ranking.

Although for now it has almost half of deaths.

America remains at the top.

Argentina continues in tenth place and goes

, which is in ninth.

It is likely that in a few days it will surpass it, although the outbreaks in the European country may delay that movement and give our country a break in its upward spiral in the world concert.

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